One Month Out: Part Two
By BOP Staff
November 4, 2009
Max Braden: I'm personally giddy over the combination of Holmes, Downey, McAdams, and Ritchie. Holmes is a well known character and Ritchie has a reputation for telling dynamic stories. But he's clearly chosen a studio-style reboot look to the project, moving away from the snooty egghead to more physical Bond/Batman action hero. I expect Sherlock Holmes' box office to be similar to (if slightly a little less because it's a period piece) the National Treasure series. They opened at Thanksgiving and Christmas with $35 million and $44 million, and finished with $173 million and $220 million.
Jim Van Nest: I like the potential for Sherlock Holmes. It WAY outranks Avatar on my most anticipated list. I think Josh nailed it, as long as it doesn't suck, Holmes could be the winner of the holiday season. Robert Downey Jr. is hot right now and the trailers look pretty damn good.
Sean Collier: I'm going out on a limb and predicting Holmes to win December. It strikes me as the painfully obvious choice for the omnipresent family-at-the-movies demographic over the Christmas season; Avatar is a bit too cumbersome for the whole family, and the kid's movies that are coming out are too young-skewing. I'm betting that nearly every family in America who pops into the multiplex between the 25th and the 1st will pick Holmes, to say nothing of how well it will do if it's actually well reviewed.
Reagen Sulewski: What's interesting about this to me is that as famous as Ritchie is, there's a strong chance that this will open to over twice the combined total domestic gross of his previous films (about 85% of which is due to Snatch.). It'll be something to see if mass audiences really respond to his style of film making, or if he's toned it down some for the franchise.
Eric Hughes: This movie - or at least its trailer - feels so Pirates of the Caribbean-esque to me (with Robert Downey Jr., Jude Law and Rachel McAdams filling in for Johnny Depp, Orlando Bloom and Keira Knightley, respectively). It looks so goofy and playful, and I'd expect it to open with fairly decent numbers. I'm with Josh in that Sherlock will at least open with solid numbers. It can then potentially sprout Pirates-like legs if the product is good.
George Rose: It looks like the offspring of Pirates of the Crribbean and any one of the Three Musketeer incarnations. Since both have been done and overdone already, I don't see it becoming any sort of classic. The cast looks great, I'll give it that, but I don't see this coming close to owning the holiday season. It needs to make at least as much as G.I. Joe's $150 million to not look like a total fool and over $200 million to justify a sequel. I see it making just about that, but not much more.
Michael Lynderey: This may be one of those holiday movies that seems to have done everything right, but then goes ahead and disappoints anyway. I don't know what it is, but I just get a bad feeling about this one. Call it a hunch. Either the movie will be too weird, or people won't care about Sherlock Holmes enough to see it, or the kids will rebel, or something. Bottom line is, I wouldn't be surprised if the total came in under $100 million, perhaps even significantly so.
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