Tracking the Cantor Index Spread:
Week Two

By Reagen Sulewski

August 2, 2001

It was certainly a banner first week for my Cantor fund, hitting big on Planet of the Apes' $68.5 million opening. Having bought at $55 million, this represents a 13.5 point shift from purchase. With a £20 bet, this results in a cash out of £290 (13.5 times £20 plus my initial bet). Really, an outstanding result but unlikely to repeat itself anytime soon. With Cantor being new to the movie handicapping business, it's natural that there be some growing pains; this is a bit of a doozy coming in the second week of the market's existence, though. Some of the more conspiracy-minded among us might suggest that this initial miss on the spread could serve as an enticement to bettors; a loss leader, per se, to entice bets with the promise of high potential gains. This, of course, assumes that you weren't in a short position and just lost £300+. Something else of note that has changed from my initial column on the Cantor index is that the data supplier has been changed from EDI Nielsen to "an approved data supplier, as determined by Cantor Index". This is likely due to that fact that nearly all four-week bets will be closing on inter-week totals, which EDI Nielsen does not display.

The massive opening of Apes also helped out my position for the four-week total, which jumped to a spread of $169-174 million from my buy at 160. I'm going to let this position stand, as I'm expecting Apes to end up around $180-185 after four weeks. Not as fortunate was my position on the four-week total of Jurassic Park III. Going slightly against fundamentals, I had expected a strong opening by Apes combined with a large weekend drop for JP3 to scare bettors off the buy position. Instead a slight rise to a $155-160 million spread from my short position at 149. I'm going to call in my £5 bet on this, absorbing the loss of £55 by purchasing back at the buy price of $160 million, as I don't expect the four-week total to be much lower than 155, if at all.

Bets are now available for two new movies on the market, Rush Hour 2 and American Pie 2. The initial spreads are $40-42 million for Rush Hour 2 and $32-34 million for American Pie 2. The American Pie 2 spread is about where I expect the movie to land at this moment, so I'm going to sit that bet out for now. I feel positive about Rush Hour 2 though, and I will be placing £20 down on the buy, expecting the movie to make more than $42 million over this coming weekend. I will also place £10 on the four weekend total bet, as the listed buy price of $112 million represents only an expected 2.67 multiplier. Although sequels will tend to be front-loaded, I expect this movie to do at least better than that. As with the opening weekend bet for American Pie 2, I feel that the four-weekend bet has found my expected spread and I will wait for any price changes. I'm also going to place an additional £10 down on the four-weekend bet for Planet of the Apes. As stated above, I think there is still about $10 million of room on the buy side.

Betting History
Bet Type
Spread at Bet
Current Spread
7/25/01Planet of the ApesWeekend£20Long$53-55 million$68.5 million13.5 point profit at settlement. Cashout of £290.
7/25/01Planet of the ApesFour week£5Long$155-160 million$169-174 million--
7/25/01Jurassic Park 3Four Week£5Short$149-154 million$155-160 millionPurchased back on 7/31/01 at $160 million. £55 loss.
8/1/01Planet of the ApesFour week£10Long$169-147 million$169-174 million--
8/1/01Rush Hour 2Weekend£20Long$40-42 million$40-42 million--
8/1/01Rush Hour 2Four Week£15Long$107-112 million$107-112 million--

Assets and Bets
Initial stake: £500
Cash on Hand: £660
Amount in Bets: £50

The information in this article is for entertainment purposes only and does not constitute any form of advice or recommendation in making any specific investment or betting decisions. Nothing in this article is intended to encourage or facilitate any activity that is prohibited by the laws of any governmental authority.



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