BOP is hosted by Crystal Tech. Click here to sign up.

Tracking the Cantor Index Spread

By Reagen Sulewski

November 28, 2001




It was a weekend of mixed messages for the top two films in the box office, as it saw Harry Potter not able to build on (or even maintain) its opening weekend juggernaut, but also saw Monsters, Inc. pick up some of the ground it lost to Potter the previous weekend. While some fall off from the massive $90 million weekend that Potter had was inevitable, the $57.5 million that it grabbed for the Thanksgiving day three-day period has to be considered something of a disappointment, comparatively (let's be clear here; in all other aspects, this is a enormous success, but we're talking specifically as it relates to betting. I don't want to get caught up calling this a disappointment merely for not shattering every record in existence).

The damage after two weekends is $187 million, which at about double the opening weekend puts it in the average performance range, legs-wise. The misleading portion of this total is that the Thanksgiving weekend total was artificially boosted by high Friday numbers (slightly higher than Saturday) something that just isn't going to repeat this weekend. A sub-35% drop off is pretty much out of the question here because of this, which is about what Potter needs to make the high side current spread of $269-274 million. On the other hand, if it were to follow the early December patterns of last year's The Grinch, with a 40% drop this weekend followed up by only 30% the next (in itself a strong pattern for this time period), it would end up at $267 million, just shy of the sell end. While I was quite bullish about the film in last week's write-up, the lackluster carryover in the friendliest weekend of the year gives me pause to wonder if it is not headed for an even greater fall.

As is obvious by my previous paragraph, I am dumping my long bet I placed last week at $290 million, for a hefty 21 point loss on a £100 bet. This turns out to be a massive £2000 pound hit to my cash reserves, fortunately, I am well covered in this respect from previous Potter earnings. A smaller but not insignificant £50 bet goes down on the short side.

Monsters, Inc's fourth weekend of $20 million plus brought it to a total of $192 million with just four days to go. It's highly unlikely, in the realm of "Canada winning the World Cup" odds for the film to either earn enough or stop earning entirely so that it would fall out of the current spread of $193-198 million. The range here is $194.5-195.5 million, which again highlights the problem with a consistent sized spread for films throughout all four weeks; by the end of the fourth weekend, the result is basically determined and any decent sized spread will cover all reasonable figures. I'll leave the two bets I have on this stock sit, as there's no point to cashing them in early, with no risk of losing points to the spread, or chance of gaining them.

There are no new spreads this week, with only one medium-sized film (Behind Enemy Lines) opening in the post-Thanksgiving hangover. Coming soon, I gather, will be Ocean's Eleven and Ali.

Betting History - Settled Bets
Date
Film
Bet Type
Amount
Position
Spread at Bet
Current Spread
Notes
11/22/01Harry PotterFour Week£100Long$285-290 million$269-274 millionSettled for 21 point loss. £2000 subtracted from cash.

Betting History - Active Bets
Date
Film
Bet Type
Amount
Position
Spread at Bet
Current Spread
Notes
11/8/01Monsters, Inc.Four Week£25Long$173-178 million$193-198 million15 point unrealized profit. Expected settlement $194.5-195.5 million.
11/22/01Monsters, Inc.Four Week£100Long$185-190 million$193-198 million3 point unrealized profit.
11/28/01Harry PotterFour Week£50Short$267-274 million$269-274 million--

Assets and Bets
Initial stake: £500
Cash on Hand: £4,900
Amount in Bets: £175
Unrealized Profits and Losses: £425


The information in this article is for entertainment purposes only and does not constitute any form of advice or recommendation in making any specific investment or betting decisions. Nothing in this article is intended to encourage or facilitate any activity that is prohibited by the laws of any governmental authority.


     


 
 

Need to contact us? E-mail a Box Office Prophet.
BOP is hosted by Crystal Tech. Click here to sign up.
Friday, November 24, 2017
© 2017 Box Office Prophets, a division of One Of Us, Inc.