David Parker's Internal Multiplier Analysis
for March 22-24, 2002

By David Parker

Black leather...the uniform of choice for all vampire hunters.

I didn't do too well last weekend in predicting internal mutlipliers, and I think I was so far off because I underestimated the effect that spring break would have on the films on Friday. Since Friday was inflated, Ice Age, Resident Evil, and Showtime all ended up well below my forecasts. Hopefully, this weekend's predictions will be more on target. The wild card this weekend is the Oscars. Since most of the viewers of the Academy Awards® on Sunday tend to be women and families, films geared towards those demographics see larger than normal dropoffs on Sunday. Meanwhile, films geared toward young males actually see a better than normal dropoff on Sunday. Here's what I expect for the three openers this week:

E.T.

Most of the comparison films for E.T. are the same ones I used for Ice Age last weekend. However, I think E.T. will have a slightly better internal mutliplier than Ice Age (3.44). I don't think there is as much of a rush factor for E.T. as there was for Ice Age. The only thing keeping me from saying that E.T. is going to get a 4.0 internal multiplier is that the Oscars are on Sunday. Because of that factor I'm going to go with a 3.7 internal multiplier which is close to what the typical family film does in March.

With a 3.7 internal multiplier, E.T. would need $8.11 million on Friday to get $30 million for the weekend.

Internal multiplier comparisons for E.T.
Film
Multiplier
Spy Kids
3.91
Baby Geniuses
4.04
The King and I
3.61
Doug's First Movie
4.06
The Road to Eldorado
3.65
Ice Age
3.44

Blade II

Usually sequels targeted towards young males have horrendous internal multipliers in the 2.4 - 2.7 range. However, because of the Academy Awards® on Sunday, Blade II should see a smaller than normal dropoff. Granted, that should only knock it by .2 or so, but it's worth noting that Romeo Must Die had a 3.14 internal multiplier back on Oscar weekend 2000. If not for the awards on Sunday, I doubt that Romeo Must Die would have had anything above 2.8. With that in mind, I'm going to give Blade II a 2.8 internal multiplier.

With a 2.8 internal multiplier, Blade II would need to earn $12.8 million on Friday to get to $35 million for the weekend.

Internal multiplier comparisons for Blade 2
Film
Multiplier
Ninth Gate
3.11
Wing Commander
2.78
The Matrix
2.88
Resident Evil
2.62
Romeo Must Die
3.14
Exit Wounds
2.89

Sorority Boys

March has not been kind to teen comedies in terms of opening weekend or internal multipliers. Most teen films in March have a less than a 2.5 internal multiplier, and open to way less than $10 million. Even with a slight boost from the Academy Awards®, I don't see Sorority Boys being an exception to this rule. I'll give the cross-dressing comedy a 2.5 internal multiplier.

With a 2.5 internal multiplier, Sorority Boys would need $2.8 million to get to $7 million for the weekend.

Internal multiplier comparisons for Sorority Boys
Film
Multiplier
Whatever It Takes
2.53
Here on Earth
2.3
Say It Isn't So
2.95
Tomcats
2.52

I'll have a full update including Friday-to-Friday dropoffs and estimates for the Top Ten about an hour and a half after the Friday Estimates are released.

 


Internal multiplier = A comparison of Friday's numbers to the rest of the weekend. So if A Beautiful Mind makes $5.1 million on Friday and $17.8 million for the whole weekend, then its internal multiplier is 3.5 ($17.8 million / $5.1 million = 3.5). Analysts use this number in reverse to predict weekend numbers from Friday's numbers.

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