Disney Beats Spielberg and Cruise
June 21 - 23, 2002

By David Parker

Do the hustle!

Every now and then, a weekend comes along that makes me doubt I've ever had any skill in predicting movie openings. This is one of those weekends. Minority Report, the first Steven Spielberg/Tom Cruise collaboration, failed to earn $12 million on Friday. Instead, Lilo & Stitch held that honor pulling in $12.3 million on Friday.

I should have seen this coming for Minority Report. You see, I was standing in front of an elaborate gumball machine, when all of a sudden out of one of the unnecessarily long plastic tubes comes this red wooden ball. Printed on the ball in black letters were the words Minority Report. I thought it was a clever marketing ploy until another red wooden ball came out of a different unnecessarily long plastic tube. That ball said 20th Century Fox Marketing Department. Really, though, how else can you explain a Spielberg/Cruise sci-fi summer film not opening to at least $40 million? Looks like the Pre-Crime Division failed to stop this murder.

Minority Report

Minority Report earned an estimated $11.35 million on Friday. It should behave very similarly to Spielberg's AI and get about a 2.95 internal multiplier. That would give the 20th Century Fox film a disappointing $33.5 million for the weekend. Even though the budget for Minority Report is said to have been $80 million, it still needs monster legs if it's going to be very profitable for Fox, considering Cruise's and Spielberg's back-end deals. This opening still has me shaking my head.


Internal Multiplier Comparisons for Minority Report
Film
Multiplier
A.I.
2.99
Planet of the Apes
2.78
Rush Hour 2
2.92
Hollow Man
2.91


Lilo & Stitch

Lilo & Stitch took in an estimated $12.3 million on Friday. This is Disney's second-biggest Friday ever for a traditionally animated film. Lilo & Stitch fell about $2 million below the Friday opening of The Lion King. Most Disney summer animated films have internal multipliers ranging from 2.9 to 3.1. I think Lilo & Stitch should be right in the middle of that pack at a 3.0 internal multiplier. That would give the Disney film $36.9 million this weekend. With an $80 million budget and great CinemaScores, Lilo & Stitch should be able to blow past $150 million and could get up to $200 million.


Internal Multiplier Comparisons for Lilo & Stitch
Film
Multiplier
Atlantis
3.13
Tarzan
2.99
Scooby-Doo
2.82
Mulan
2.85
Hercules
3.03

Juwanna Man

Juwanna Man took in an estimated $2.05 million on Friday. After sitting in the can for over two years, Warner Bros. must be ecstatic that Juwanna Man made even a million dollars on Friday. Juwanna Man should get a 2.9 internal multiplier and earn $5.9 million for the weekend. The WB film should have huge drop-offs in the coming weeks, but at least WB will earn some of their money back.


Internal Multiplier Comparisons for Juwanna Man
Film
Multiplier
Pootie Tang
2.9
The Wood
3.05

Notable Holdovers

Scooby-Doo dropped 59.5% from last Friday. Since the want-to-see factor should be less this weekend, Scooby-Doo should drop just over 50% for the whole weekend. A $26.8 million weekend would give the film over $100 million, and keeps the gang on target for $170 million total.

The Bourne Identity dropped 46.8% from last Friday. A 41% drop for the weekend would bring in around $16 million for the Matt Damon spy thriller. Universal has to hope for smaller weekend and weekday drop-offs if it wants The Bourne Identity to cross the $100 million mark.

Both Spider-Man and Attack of the Clones moved closer to their respective box-office milestones. Spider-Man should get to $390.5 million this weekend, and probably will top out at $410 million. Dropping 42%, Attack of the Clones should only get $5.5 million this weekend. With a total of $280.2 million after Sunday, Episode 2 probably will not make $300 million domestically.

The top ten films should make $149.4 million for the three-day weekend. That's 12.75% more than this weekend last year.

 

Friday-to-Friday Drop-Offs
Film
Fri-Fri Depreciation
Estimated 3-Day Weekend Depreciation
Star Wars: Attack of the Clones
-42.6%
-42%
Spiderman
-37.9%
-37%
Scooby Doo
-59.5%
-50.5%
The Bourne Identity
-46.8%
-41%
Windtalkers
-56.7%
-52%
The Sum of All Fears
-45%
-44%
Divine Secrets of the Ya-Ya Sisterhood
-38.7%
-37%



Extrapolated Estimates for the Top Ten
Projected
Rank
Film
Estimated 3-Day Gross (M$)
Total Gross by Sunday (M$)
1
Lilo and Stitch
36.9
36.9
2
Minority Report
33.5
33.5
3
Scooby Doo
26.8
102.6
4
The Bourne Identity
16
53.3
5
The Sum of All Fears
7.5
97.1
6
Windtalkers
7
27
7
Juwanna Man
5.9
5.9
8
Divine Secrets of the Ya-Ya Sisterhood
5.6
46.3
9
Star Wars: Attack of the Clones
5.5
280.2
10
Spider-Man
4.7
390.5

Internal multiplier = A comparison of Friday's numbers to the rest of the weekend. So if A Beautiful Mind makes $5.1 million on Friday and $17.8 million for the whole weekend, then its internal multiplier is 3.5 ($17.8 million / $5.1 million = 3.5). Analysts use this number in reverse to predict weekend numbers from Friday's numbers.