Competition Jacked in the Ass
By David Parker
October 26, 2002
Optimists and pessimists got their wish this weekend, as jackass the movie was easily the number one film on Friday. Yes, the apocalypse is here, the Four Horsemen are drawing nearer, and the decline of Western civilization is complete. jackass took in an estimated $9.9 million on Friday. This a clear win for MTV Films and Johnny Knoxville, and I think I heard a cry of "uncle" from the rest of society. Most forecasters had jackass pulling in $10 million this weekend (even my own $15 million prediction got crushed). For the film to do $10 million on Friday is amazing. The other big surprise is the legs of The Ring. Even expanding more than 600 theatres, no one expected the DreamWorks thriller to actually increase box office from last Friday. I'm pretty sure rival studios and parents wish Johnny Knoxville and company would just watch The Ring as their next daredevil stunt. Personally, I just want to see a jackass sequel. Hey, either you think a midget kicking himself in the head is funny or you don't. There's no in-between. I'm giggling just typing it.
jackass the movie
As I already stated, jackass pulled in an estimated $9.9 million on Friday. So, just how frontloaded will this film be? Probably not as much as you'd expect. Clearly, this film has a core audience, but just by the sheer numbers on Friday, it's apparent that jackass is pulling in non-fans of the show. I think that fact will keep the internal multiplier above films like X-Files: Fight the Future, Pokémon: The Second Movie, or Freddy Got Fingered. A 2.6 multiplier would give jackass: the movie a $25.6 million weekend, and puts Johnny Knoxville on a clear path to becoming a movie star. Of course, he won't take that road. He'll probably choose to be catapulted across the path with lit Roman candles attached to his legs, but stardom awaits nonetheless.
Ghost Ship
Dark Castle's Ghost Ship made an estimated $4.1 million on Friday. If it follows the pattern of its predecessors, Thir13en Ghosts and House on Haunted Hill, it should get a 2.8 internal multiplier. That would good enough for $11.3 million this weekend, which is not a total failure, but compared to the $15 million openings of the other two films, it's slightly underwhelming. After a number three showing this weekend, Ghost Ship should fade off into the horizon before making $30 million total.
Notable Holdovers
Clearly, The Ring would be the top story if it weren't for jackass. It made an estimated $6.0 million on Friday. That's an increase of 25.8% over last Friday. The film has serious legs. With almost $40 million in the bank after Sunday, $100 million is looking very likely. Kudos have to go DreamWorks. They marketed this film as a horror movie, but clearly more than just fans of the genre showed up. Comparisons were made to The Others after opening weekend, and now it appears that The Ring will surpass that film's box office.
My Big Fat Greek Wedding just will not quit. Down only 9% from last Friday, it's now a lock to reach $200 million. Gee, I wonder if this is an underserved demographic?
Stop back tomorrow when John Hamann will have official weekend estimates and analysis.
Extrapolated Estimates for the Top Ten |
Projected
Rank |
Film |
Estimated Gross (M$) |
|
1
|
jackass the movie
|
25.6
|
|
2
|
The Ring
|
18.6
|
|
3
|
Ghost Ship
|
11.3
|
|
4
|
Sweet Home Alabama
|
6.6
|
|
5
|
My Big Fat Greek Wedding
|
6.4
|
|
6
|
Red Dragon
|
4.9
|
|
7
|
Punch-Drunk Love
|
3.6
|
|
8
|
The Transporter
|
3.0
|
|
9
|
Abandon
|
2.7
|
|
10
|
Tuck Everlasting
|
2.7
|
Internal multiplier = A comparison of Friday's numbers to the rest of the
weekend. So if Sweet Home Alabama makes $5.1 million
on Friday and $17.8 million for the whole weekend, then its internal
multiplier is 3.5 ($17.8 million / $5.1 million = 3.5).
Analysts use this number in reverse to predict weekend numbers from Friday's
numbers.
|
|
|
|
