March is shaping up to be a time of solid but unspectacular film releases.
None of the titles in my top ten has the feel of a breakout film at the
moment. Some like Hidalgo once looked that way on paper, but as release
approaches, the buzz still seems to be reserved for Mel Gibson's shocking
performer, The Passion of the Christ. The way I see it, being number one this month
means you're still not going to have an $80 million domestic earner. A few
million here or there could be the difference in moving up several notches
on this list. In particular, the last selection on the list could see a
significant boost were it given a heavy advertising campaign. My analysis
is based on the fact that it won't get that. Then again, I thought 50 First
Dates was the biggest release last month so your mileage probably should
vary across the board here.
1) Starsky and Hutch
I find the idea of this re-make truly inspired. Rather than play it as a
satire that sends up the original show, Ben Stiller and Owen Wilson have
come up with something better. They are making an exact duplicate of the
series, realizing that a quarter century later, such a doppelganger will
offer intrinsic comedy value on its own. Having already caught a screening,
I know that the film has been done well. I am less certain about its
marketing thus far. It seems to be suffering a bit from Zoolander-itis, as
I get the feeling the folks editing the trailers don't quite know what to
do with it. I think Starsky and Hutch will open very well and be loved by
many. I don't expect a lot of staying power, though.
2) Scooby-Doo 2
Oh, how I hope I'm right about this one. The first Scooby-Doo CGI fiasco is
single-handedly responsible for setting back the educational system two
full decades. An embarrassment in every sense of the word, I was nearly
orgasmic over the thought of voting it the worst film of the year.
Unfortunately, Birthday Girl also came out that year, so Nicole Kidman's
"Hog-tied bitch" schtick stole my thunder a bit. The point is that I
loathed what the bastards at Warner Bros. had done to my beloved childhood
cartoon. They dumbed it down to the point that anyone lacking a lobotomy
wouldn't recognize this monstrosity. The low point was an extended fart and
burp sequence that seemed to last for hours. Oh, how I wish I were
kidding. The presence of Seth Green in the sequel leaves me overwrought
with ambiguity. I love Seth, so his presence may only enhance the
Scooby-Doo Experience. Conversely, slightly better than heinous is still
not anywhere near even mediocre, though. More to the point, if we learned
nothing else from 2003, it's that unwanted sequels don't automatically
bring in the customers like the originals did. Scooby-Doo opened to a
staggering $54 million, but that's no guarantee it will do even half as
much now. Factoring in karma, it certainly shouldn't, anyway.
3) Dawn of the Dead
Zombie movies are all the rage these days. Resident Evil did so well that a
sequel was quickly put into production and 28 Days Later was one of the
most surprising performers of 2003. From the re-makes perspective, a little
film called The Texas Chainsaw Massacre didn't do too badly either. While
many loudly bemoan all attempts to re-create Hollywood classics as a travesty,
the reality is that many of these B-horror movies may be greatly improved
if given the right amount of modern make-up and special effects. The Dawn
of the Dead trailer indicates that this is just such an endeavor. The
extended trailer is one of my favorites of 2004 so far, and I will be there
on opening day to bear witness to the horror that is a zombie daughter and
a claustrophobic mall siege. I expect the theater to be packed that day.
4) Secret Window
Stephen King book adaptations are like a box of chocolates. Or something
like that. For every creepy thriller like Carrie or Misery, there seems to
be three or four Dreamcatchers. Those of you who have read The Calvin
Awards know how much we think of that bit of bile. Secret Window is the
latest work on the assembly line, and it looks better than most. Johnny
Depp is going to be the one who gets this project its attention, but it's
John Turturro who appears to be playing the role he was predestined to
undertake as an emotionally unstable man called Shooter. His drawl gives me
the chills, and I don't think I'm the only one. I'm not expecting boffo box
office, but I think the perceived quality of this one will win more than a
few folks over in the end.
5) Hidalgo
Fresh off of his stint as the regal hero in the 172 Academy Awards-winning
The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King, Viggo Mortensen seeks to prove
that he is more than just a leathery face. His first attempt at opening a
movie on his own rather than under the umbrella of Peter Jackson's beard
doesn't have me excited. It's a faux-true story about a 19th century horse
race. There is nothing positive in the previous sentence. Hidalgo does have
spirited commercials that emphasize a genuine money shot, the hundred years
dust storm, and Viggo will probably get a fair share of nerd love. I expect
this one to be a wash when it comes to determining how big a career he will
have outside of Middle Earth. If anything, it will fall on the "uh oh" side
of the spectrum.
6) The Ladykillers
This is the wild card of the month. The Coen Brothers have never had a huge
box office hit. Tom Hanks has not failed to have a huge box office hit
since roughly 1942. Something's gotta give. Having viewed the trailer, I'm
inclined to see The Ladykillers as similar to Eternal Sunshine of the
Spotless Mind mentioned above. It's probably even quirkier, but it at least
appears to have the full support of its studio. With the bottom of the list
being so flimsy, that's enough to put the Tom Hanks movie above the dregs.
Plus, I really like the way the man says "forthwith".
7) Agent Cody Banks II
For all the hits Disney took about not re-signing Hilary Duff, it's
actually MGM that didn't bring her back first. After they refused to bring
her damsel-in-distress back for a second outing, New Line, Miramax and
Warner Bros. quickly lined up to throw money at the feet of the teen
sensation. For his part, Frankie Muniz is left with only Anthony Anderson to
keep him warm at night. That's like being used as currency in prison right
there. The first Cody Banks movie opened to a surprising $14 million on its
way to almost $50 million in North American receipts, so it's
understandable why MGM would be in a hurry to make another film a year
later. What's less clear is how much teen audiences were really wanting to
see the return of a pubescent James Bond in training type. I strongly
suspect lightning isn't going to strike twice here. Fortunately, these
movies are cheapies to produce. The sequel shares the same budget as the
original, $26 million. There isn't much risk involved here, so the film has
very little downside.
8) Jersey Girl
My heart is warring with my head on this one. I am a huge fan of Kevin
Smith, particularly the maturing guy last seen directing Chasing Amy. I am
less a fan of the zany, sophomoric stuff that he personally seems to favor,
so I have sat through the disappointing Jay and Silent Bob Strike Back and
the heartbreaking Dogma waiting for another Chasing Amy. Here it is. I
think the commercials for it are adorable, and as one of the few people who
still proudly claim to like Ben Affleck, there is a lot for me to like here
on a personal level. As a box office analyst, it's hard to ignore all of
those extenuating circumstances that might cause Jersey Girl some trouble.
The stink of Gigli remains pungent and Affleck is getting unfairly punished
for being such a proud, Diva-dating Red Sox fan. Ain't backlash a bitch? The
other factor is that despite all the hype for the gifted artist, Kevin
Smith's last two films have opened to less than $20 million combined. No
one would be happier than me if Jersey Girl turns out to be his Annie Hall,
but the reality is that I'm not feeling it. Prove me wrong, people.
9) Taking Lives
The latest in a series of attempts by Angelina Jolie to prove that she can
beat Ashley Judd at her own game, this film has an ace in its hole. The
concept of a body thief might not be original (Anne Rice's attorney on line
one), but when done well, the idea offers a distinct amount of suspense.
Putting the malevolently voiced Kiefer Sutherland and Uma Thurman's
cheating heart, Ethan Hawke, into potentially villainous roles is all the
better. More to the point from Goddess of Love Angelina's perspective,
after the Tomb Raider 2 fiasco, the best thing Taking Lives has going for
it is lowered expectations. Then again, so did Beyond Borders.
10) Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Imagine if you will The Cable Guy but weirder. That's what we're discussing
here. An eclectic project made as a change of pace for frustrated would-be
thespian Jim "Rubber Face" Carrey, this is yet another attempt for him to
win a Golden Globe only to be shunned by the Academy. The fact that it
wasn't released during awards season is indicative of exactly how
successful this project looks to be, and we're talking about a guy who once
had people thinking that The Majestic could be an end of year awards
contender. I think this project looks hilarious, so I can't wait to see it.
Even so, there is no doubt in my mind that this one is not meant for
mainstream consumption. The project of that variety was released last
month, and it starred Carrey's replacement as the current icon of funny,
Adam Sandler.
