Four new and distinctly different releases flooded the marketplace this weekend, but the Men in Black managed to hold off all challengers and repeat as king of the hill on Friday. Barring an unexpectedly strong Saturday spike for Road to Perdition, the sequel should manage to become the first film since The Sum of All Fears to hold the number one position for two consecutive weeks.
Actually, the biggest surprise at the weekend box office didn't even come from Friday numbers. Instead, it was obvious when Variety reported that Road to Perdition would be exhibited in 1,797 venues that this film was in it for the long haul rather than the typical summer pattern of get in, open big, and disappear faster than soap in the shower. With the brave decision from DreamWorks to deflate Road's opening weekend and strengthen its staying power, along with the moderate performance of this weekend's other three new releases, Men in Black II will be able to hold its position at the top despite a heady drop from last Friday's numbers.
With word-of-mouth on the movie looking to be very good, based on the overwhelmingly positive reviews and A- CinemaScore, Road to Perdition is poised to become the late-summer buzz film DreamWorks anticipated. Don't be surprised if its drop next week is similar to that of The Sixth Sense, particularly as it will be adding screens.
Friday-to-Friday Drop-Offs |
||
Film |
Fri-Fri Depreciation |
Estimated 3-Day Weekend Depreciation |
Men in Black II
|
-61%
|
-52%
|
Mr. Deeds
|
-45%
|
-40%
|
Like Mike
|
-41%
|
-36%
|
Lilo & Stitch
|
-49%
|
-41%
|
Minority Report
|
-54%
|
-50%
|
The Bourne Identity
|
-48%
|
-45%
|
Extrapolated Estimates for the Top Ten |
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Projected Rank |
Film |
Estimated 3-Day Gross (M$) |
Total Gross by Sunday (M$) |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1
|
Men in Black 2
|
25.0
|
133.4
|
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2
|
Road to Perdition
|
21.5
|
21.5
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
3
|
Reign of Fire
|
16.0
|
16.0
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
4
|
Halloween
|
12.3
|
12.3
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
5
|
Mr. Deeds
|
11.0
|
94.1
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6
|
The Crocodile Hunter: Collision Course
|
8.5
|
8.5
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7
|
Like Mike
|
7.8
|
32.8
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
8
|
Lilo & Stitch
|
7.5
|
117.9
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
9
|
Minority Report
|
6.3
|
108.2
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
10
|
The Bourne Identity
|
5.0
|
98.3
|
Internal multiplier = A comparison of Friday's numbers to the rest of the weekend. So if Road to Perdition makes $5.1 million on Friday and $17.8 million for the whole weekend, then its internal multiplier is 3.5 ($17.8 million / $5.1 million = 3.5). Analysts use this number in reverse to predict weekend numbers from Friday's numbers.