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Movie Buffs Passionate About MelBy David MumpowerFebruary 28, 2004
The Passion of the ChristAfter a record breaking Wednesday performance of $23.6 million (plus $3 million in prior ticket sales), The Passion of the Christ appeared likely to cool off some. Consider that even the most successful Wednesday openings such as the Lord of the Rings and Star Wars franchises saw declines of 50% or more on day two. Their Fridays all saw increases, but nothing compared to day one when the opening day rush drove audiences to theaters. Yes, it was reasonable to assume a couple of days ago that Mel Gibson's movie would perform in a similar fashion to those other blockbuster films.Whoops. Thursday sales of The Passion of the Christ saw an intake of $14.8 million, an astonishingly strong holdover from opening day. Consider that the day two decline of 37.3% is the smallest on record for a film with such a successful weekday debut. We knew at that moment that the film was not going to be a one-day box office wonder. Even so, the Friday box office of $22.9 million is a staggering total. Films are not supposed to effectively equal their Wednesday performances again on Friday. Don't believe me? Star Wars: Episode One made $28.5 million on its first Wednesday. Its Friday total of $18.5 million is 65% of the opening day number. The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King earned $34.5 million with its Wednesday debut. The first Friday total of $21.8 million represents only 63.1% of the first day total. How then do we explain the behavior of The Passion of the Christ? Its Thursday decline of 37.3% was impressive enough, but the Friday numbers are possibly even more scintillating. The $22.9 million is 97% (!) of its Wednesday debut. I know that this is a lot of math to take in, so let's shave with Occam's Razor a bit. Episode One and Return of the King did roughly two thirds of their Wednesday debut numbers on the following Fridays. The Passion of the Christ effectively did 100%. Any arguments about the potential legs of this film are currently out the way. Statistical analysis of the movie's box office based on its first three days of behavior indicates a juggernaut in the making. For now, though, we are only concerned with how it does this weekend. That too is tricky. Generally, the Academy Awards indicates a significant hit against Sunday box office. The obvious reason for this effect is that the biggest fans of movies are also the ones most likely to enjoy the most accredited awards show about the industry. In the case of The Passion of the Christ, there is a possibility that many of the people going to see the movie are mutually exclusive with those who enjoy watching Hollywood glitz and glamour. In addition, Sunday matinees were confirmed to be the hottest pre-sellers for a movie that has recently earned the title of largest pre-sales in the history of this industry. It's an immovable force, an irresistible object and pick'em. It is my expectation that the forces will largely cancel out, leading me to make an estimate based upon what I would normally extrapolate a film of this subject matter to do. That means a solid 3.35 multiplier, par for the course for a movie that skews adult, which would bring a $76.7 million weekend. The Passion of the Christ would be within $10 million of Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon's all-time record of $128 million for a subtitled movie. After only five days. Just last week, I was getting called crazy for saying the film would do north of $50 million from Wednesday through Sunday. I was in fact crazy. Crazy low. This is the most shocking box office phenomenon in five years, and it could get Titanic-level crazy before all is said and done. There is every possibility that some more devout exhibitors will still be showing The Passion of the Christ at this time next year when the Academy Awards again roll around.
TwistedBelieve it or not, there were other openers this weekend. Don't worry if you didn't notice. Nobody else did either. The winner -- if you can call it that -- is Twisted. Ashley Judd's latest attempt at demonstrating that she's more than a Kentucky basketball cheerleader was met with a resounding slap by critics across the country. 80 out of 81 reviewers at Rotten Tomatoes gave it the thumbs down, and a couple of them even went the extra mile to give it the finger as well. The $2.9 million Friday debut indicates a likely $8.3 million weekend and a quick exit from theaters. On the plus side, March Madness is right around the corner, and UK is a likely 3 seed, so Judd won't go completely unnoticed in March. Wave those pom-poms proudly, girl!
Dirty Dancing: Havana NightsNext up is the vastly disappointing Dirty Dancing: Havana Nights, which earned only $2.2 million Friday. Remaking a beloved 1980s film has now failed twice in the last three months (Love Don't Cost a Thing being the other), so I don't think Alex Winter should be gearing up for another Bill and Ted's Excellent Adventure outing any time soon. Bogus.Considering the opening rush factor (in theory anyway), this one might have already seen its best day. A $6 million weekend is a best case scenario, so nobody at Artisan will be having the time of their life tonight.
Broken Lizard's Club DreadThe other opener this week breaks my heart. Broken Lizard, the geniuses behind Super Troopers, returned this weekend with a comedy/horror flick called Club Dread. All of the carryover buzz they had for their stellar debut somehow didn't equate to improved box office performance. Super Troopers opened to a very impressive $7.1 million, but with only $1.3 million on Friday, Club Dread is looking to make $3.8 million over the weekend. Kim and I knew there was going to be trouble when we walked into an empty theater at 7 p.m. last night. If you are a Broken Lizard fan (or even a Jimmy Buffett Parrot Head), you won't be disappointed by this one, though. Broken Lizard deserves a better fate with their next outing.
HoldoversSince the new films were so disappointing last week, it's not surprising that week two doesn't offer redemption for any of them. Against the Ropes is already out of the top ten. Confessions of a Teenage Drama Queen is off 43.3% from last Friday. People don't love Raymond enough, because Welcome to Mooseport is down 50.5%. And don't tell Scotty, but Eurotrip's 45.4% decline off an already small previous Friday tally of $2.4 million indicates it will be losing a LOT of screens next Friday.
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Monday, May 12, 2008
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