November Forecast

By Walid Habboub

10. Half Past Dead what you'd have to be to go see this film. This is another one of those gritty urban kung-fu films along the same lines as Romeo Must Die and Exit Wounds except this time, it doesn't have the same appeal as the other two. No DMX and no Jet Li makes moviegoers stay home. The concept is as uninteresting as it is unbelievable, but it's still an action film; a mindless one at that, so some people will undoubtedly show up to see it. Hopefully, this will be the last of these kung-fuxplotation films.

9. Wes Craven Presents They

Not to be confused with It and Them, They has a solidly creepy trailer and should scare up enough money to turn a profit. Horror movies generally do well at the box office, with a breakout hit happening once in a while. The only concern is that this film is being released a month too early or a month too late, but perhaps the studio knows they have a quality horror film on their hands so they are looking to capitalize on its legs potential. Either way, the film should hold its own.

8. The Santa Clause 2: The Mrs Clause

Should we read too much into the fact that a Christmas movie is being released eight weeks before Christmas or should we just ignore it? The reasoning behind why Disney would release this movie so long before Christmas is puzzling, but it doesn't change the fact that this is a sequel to a very big hit. The Santa Clause was a very well-received film that made a lot of money for Disney, but the sequel was one that had a lot of problems during filming and has been in and out of production for almost three years. Perhaps the film won't be able to capitalize on the success of the first film, but it should still be able to do very well.

7. Solaris

It's really hard to judge how well Solaris will do. On one hand, it has some pretty big names behind it: George Clooney and Stephen Soderbergh. On the other, the film is apparently a slow, methodical psychological thriller that is more artsy than its credentials would make it seem. But box office is determined by how well a movie is sold, and Solaris has a lot of potential in that area. A sci-fi thriller starring Clooney and directed by Oscar winner Soderbergh should do quite well.

6. Friday After Next

This is the third, and possibly last, in the urban comedy franchise. Ice Cube returns to what he does best and the fans will respond. It's doubtful that this film will prove to be as big as the first sequel in the franchise. If you subscribe to the theory that a sequel's success is a direct reflection on the quality of its predecessor, Friday After Next should only do modestly well. Friday was carried by Chris Tucker, who did not star in Next Friday, and therefore Friday After Next will likely suffer. It should still do brisk business even though it probably won't match its predecessor.

5. I Spy

Well, they tried selling it with one joke, the double O-nine-and-a-half thing, and then moved to a second joke, the sexual healing thing, but on the surface, it looks like there's little else funny in this film. Owen Wilson is usually hilarious and Murphy can have his moments, when he doesn't try to take over a film, but I Spy's problem might be that it's funnier than it looks. The advertising has been at a saturation level, so the film should still do fairly well at the box office.

4. Treasure Planet

Treasure Planet is Disney's version of Titan AE, an overblown, over-animated, unhip and uncool film that is just trying too much to be a success. The film seems to be targeted to the 'tweeners, as it looks a little more intense than your normal Disney fare. It's a little too old to be a big success, much like The Emperor's New Groove. Overall, the film should do better than Groove with its lean towards action.

3. 8 Mile

8 Mile comes in at three on the strength of the early buzz it has been receiving and the star-power behind it. Eminem could be the biggest music star in the world, especially when it comes to the 18-30 demographic. Curtis Hanson is one of the most respected directors in cinema today and is lauded for his ability to present realistic and gritty characters. They've both combined to make a truly great film that will appeal to both the regular movie public and the young moviegoer, especially the African American crowd. The authenticity of the film will keep people coming back but its ad campaign, one of the best of its kind to come around in a long time, will help make it a tremendous success.

2. Die Another Day

The top two are sure bets but they'll get a mention anyway. As horrid as The World is Not Enough was, it was still a tremendous success, the best in James Bond history. Die Another Day looks just as lame as The World is Not Enough and this time, James Bond even has a sidekick. It's almost impossible to recollect when the last time the actor playing James Bond shared top billing with his female lead was, but nonetheless, it has happened with Die Another Day. But there is no doubting the box office power of this franchise, so the movie will be a huge success.

1. Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets

With the inaugural Potter film becoming the second-biggest worldwide box office hit in history, it is very unlikely that any film will beat Potter for the number one spot for this month. The most interesting thing about this film is seeing whether it can match the opening of its predecessor. This pundit will say no, mainly because the newness factor is not present with this film. Fans probably will not clamor for this film as much as they did for the first film. Nevertheless, the film will be a huge success and will battle it out with the Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers for second place overall for 2002.

  • Read Tim Briody's November forecast
  • Read Kim Hollis' November forecast
  • Read Dan Krovich's November forecast
  • Read David Mumpower's November forecast
  • Read Stephanie Star Smith's November forecast
  • Read Calvin Trager's November forecast