February 2004 Forecast

By Walid Habboub

1. 50 First Dates

Whether you are an Adam Sandler fan or not, you laughed at seeing Rob Schneider get pummeled with a baseball bat by Drew Barrymore. If you didn’t laugh at that, you probably went “Aaaah,” at the site of a penguin wearing a Hawaiian shirt narrowly escaping getting run over by a car. Either way, 50 First Dates has all the formulas for being a hit for Sandler. The premise is cute, the cast is right and the ads have been effective.

$30 million Opening, $105 million total

2. The Passion of Christ

The last film to get this much non-hype was The Blair Witch project and that film did boffo box office. While the religious matter of the story won’t have the same appeal of that as a horror movie, enough people will be curious about this film to see it. Everyone will be heading to the theatres to have certain questions answered. Questions such as: How does this film insult Jews, what does Aramaic sound like and what’s it really like to see an actor flush his career down the toilet? Regardless, if this film gets a wide release, it should make a lot of money.

$25 million opening, $70 million total

3. Barbershop 2

I utterly despised the first film so I won’t spend too long on this one. Suffice it to say that Ice Cube, Eve and Cedric the Entertainer are back and this time Queen Latifah has joined them. I’m sure something funny will supposedly happen and we’ll all laugh heartily. At least we’ll have something to watch other than Janet Jackson’s nipple.

$22 million opening, $50 million total

4. Eurotrip

As much as I hated Barbershop, I really liked Road Trip. The film was funnier than it should have been and had a wit that no one expected it to have. Eurotrip, a non-sequel to Road Trip, looks to take things a bit further as it takes the jokes across the pond and onto the continent of bad teeth, strong beer and smelly cheese. Old School has developed a cult following and if enough word gets out that those two films might be linked to Eurotrip somehow, Eurotrip can be very successful.

$20 million opening, $80 million total

5. Miracle

Being a Canadian, the trailers for this film made me laugh furiously. “The Greatest Sporting Event of All Time?” Puh-lease, it’s not even the greatest event in hockey. Still, it’s a feel-good sports movie and it should do well (even though Kurt Russell looks more like Howard Cosell than Herb Brooks). Good fun for the whole family will mean big business for Disney.

$16 million opening, $90 million total.

6. Twisted

Pop quiz…Whose career has disappeared faster? Ashley Judd’s, Sam Jackson’s or Andy Garcia’s? The answer is, yes. Well, all three actors cross paths in this film by Philip Kaufmann, who is actually a very talented director. This mystery is in the same vein as all of Judd’s previous films and looks to build on that success.

$14 million opening, $40 million total

7. Welcome to Mooseport

Continuing on the personal likes and dislikes theme, I don’t like Ray Romano even though I can’t help but laugh at him. As well, I’m a sucker for Gene Hackman in a comedy. The pairing of the two looks to be a hilarious combination and I personally wouldn’t mind shelling out the money to see this film.

$13 million opening, $50 million total

8. Catch That Kid

A Spy Kids rip-off, Catch That Kid should prove attractive enough to make decent coin for its studio. Though this might not be the best time to release a kids flick, and with it having a seemingly more serious tone, the film will find it difficult to score the same success of Spy Kids. Still, this type of film has proved successful and should do well.

$10 million opening, $28 million total

9. Confessions of a Teenage Drama Queen

It’s only natural that a movie would be made about a Teenage Drama Queen since it was inevitable that a Hollywood exec would finally order a film made about his daughter. This film stars Lindsey Lohan, and other many other people who dare call themselves actors. The only question this film will pose is: What the hell has to happen for these movies to no longer be made?

$7 million opening, $38 million total.

10. Broken Lizard's Club Dread

The only film I’m hoping will do better than what I expect it to is Club Dread. The comedy group’s previous outing, Super Troopers, was genius in places and bland in others. Overall, these guys could be the next thing in comedies so I’m hoping they make it big time with this film. Originally scheduled to be released in August 2003, Dread is now in a less competitive market and can hopefully do well.

$5 million opening, $20 million total

  • Read Marty Doskins' February Forecast
  • Read David Mumpower's February Forecast
  • Read Les Winan's February Forecast



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