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The Santa Clause 3: The Escape Clause (Buena Vista), starring Tim Allen, Martin Short, Ann-Margret and Judge Reinhold, will easily win the weekend to kick off the holiday blockbuster season with a bang. Virtually nobody has seen this film, so there's no telling how good (or bad) it might be, but it's going to open big.

What's interesting about the tracking is that its two strongest quadrants are Men 25 Plus and Women 25 Plus. That tells me that there is some nostalgia here. The first movie in the series opened in 1994 and generated $144 million domestic. A fair number of the people who made the movie a hit 12 years ago will be able to take their kids to see it this weekend. There are even parents who brought their kids to see it in '94 who will take their grandkids to the multiplex Saturday.

Word is that The Santa Clause 3 isn't very good. Tim Allen could use a hit after the modest failure of the spring release The Shaggy Dog ($61 million) and Zoom ($11 million), which bombed this summer. Although I love Martin Short, he has only translated on the big screen as that over-the-top wedding planner in the Father of the Bride movies. And with Michael Lembeck directing, it is likely to have a TV-feel. He directed The Santa Clause 2, but he is best known for his work on multiple episodes of TV shows like Major Dad, Friends, Coach, Everybody Loves Raymond and Veronica's Closet.

The reviews may be soft, it may feel like a high-concept sitcom, and its stars may have a spotty box office track record, but America wants to see this movie, and it will ring-up box office register to the tune of $25-$28 million this weekend.

The Santa Clause 3 By The Numbers

Top 5 Tim Allen Films - Domestic Box Office
1. Toy Story 2 - $245,852,000
2. Toy Story - $191,796,000
3. The Santa Clause - $144,833,000
4. The Santa Clause 2 - $139,236,000
5. Christmas with the Kranks - $73,780,000

Top 5 Martin Short Films - Domestic Box Office
1. The Prince of Egypt - $101,413,000
2. Father of the Bride - $89,325,000
3. Jimmy Neutron: Boy Genius - $80,936,000
4. Father of the Bride Part II - $76,594,000
5. Jungle 2 Jungle - $59,927,000

Top 5 Ann-Margret Films - Domestic Box Office
1. The Break-Up - $118,703,000
2. Any Given Sunday - $75,530,000
3. Grumpier Old Men - $71,518,000
4. Grumpy Old Men - $70,172,000
5. Tommy - $34,251,000

Top 5 Judge Reinhold Films - Domestic Box Office
1. Beverly Hills Cop - $234,760,000
2. Beverly Hills Cop II - $153,665,000
3. Gremlins $148,168,000
4. Stripes - $85,297,000
5. Ruthless People - $71,624,000

All-Time Top 5 Christmas Movies � Domestic Box Office
1. How the Grinch Stole Christmas - $260,044,000
2. The Polar Express - $173,675,000
3. Elf - $173,398,000
4. The Santa Clause - $144,833,000
5. The Santa Clause 2 - $139,236,000

Here are the weekend box office projections from your humble columnist and independent theatre owner:

1. The Santa Clause 3: The Escape Clause - $27 million
2. Saw III - $16 million
3. Flushed Away - $14 million
4. Borat - $12 million
5. The Departed - $7 million

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