Now Playing: Weekend Box Office
By Steve Mason
October 5, 2006
Friday evening update from Steve Mason:
REVISION OF WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PROJECTIONS AS OF FRIDAY, 10/6 @ 6:20PM.
Just spoke to a source in distribution about yesterday's industry tracking research. Warner Bros distribution execs must be elated. In the words of one high-level exec from a competing studio about The Departed, "This film is taking off." Simultaneously, the tracking softened for Texas Chainsaw Massacre: The Beginning.
Here's what I went on line with Thursday morning:
1. Texas Chainsaw Massacre: The Beginning - $26 million
2. The Departed - $20 million
3. Open Season - $15 million
4. The Guardian - $10 million
5. Employee of the Month - $9 million
Given those developments, here are my revised weekend projections:
1. The Departed - $30 million
2. Texas Chainsaw Massacre: The Beginning - $17 million
3. Open Season - $15 million
4. The Guardian - $10 million
5. Jackass Number Two - $9 million
6. Employee of the Month - $8 millionPressure is on Warner Bros. to deliver with The DepartedIt has been a miserable year for Warner Bros. The summer started with the Wolfgang Peterson dud Poseidon ($60 million), then Superman Returns failed to crack $200 million. The dog days of summer took on new meaning for WB as they released dogs like Lady In the Water ($42 million), Ant Bully ($27 million) and Wicker Man ($23 million).
Now, they are sweating over this week's release of Martin Scorsese's The Departed.
Word is that it's a great movie. As of Thursday (10/5) at noon, RottenTomatoes.com has the movie at an astounding 94% positive and MetaCritic.com has it scoring an overwhelmingly positive 90. The problem is that despite a monster cast - Jack Nicholson, Leonardo DiCaprio, Matt Damon, Mark Wahlberg and Martin Sheen have a combined 19 pictures on their resumes with $100 million plus domestic - there are some factors that make it a tough sell.
The Departed, based on the Japanese indie hit Infernal Affairs, is rated R...and it's a strong R. I'm told that the level of violence is even more extreme than Goodfellas, which is saying something. I'm told that it's tracking huge with Males 25 Plus, but it's not the kind of movie that wives and girlfriends are necessarily interested in seeing.
Don't get me wrong. Every guy in the world loves Goodfellas, and we will all see The Departed. It just might not be on opening weekend. After all, there's college and pro football, and the baseball playoffs, and the wife or girlfriend may drag us to see the more female-friendly The Queen (Miramax) or Last King of Scotland (Fox Searchlight) or Little Children (New Line).
I spoke to one distribution executive this morning who said that "if this movie doesn't do $20 million, somebody at Warner Bros is gonna kill themselves." That's a little harsh. The Departed is a tricky movie, and, to be honest, Scorsese isn't exactly a sure-thing at the box office. He has exactly one film that has topped $100 million domestic - The Aviator at $102 million - and Goodfellas, to which The Departed is being compared, generated only $46 million.
Great art isn't necessarily easy to sell, and my guess is that this is not a film with a shot at $100 million. Thanks to the DOA status of Hollywoodland, The Black Dahlia and All the King's Men, there is really no successful film product for grown-ups in wide release, so let's give Warner Bros. a shot at its $20 million weekend. The Departed will score between $19-$22 million.
The Departed (Warner Bros.) By The Numbers
Top 5 Martin Scorsese-Directed Films - Domestic Box Office
1. The Aviator - $102,610,000
2. Cape Fear - $79,091,000
3. Gangs of New York - $77,812,000
4. The Color of Money - $52,293,000
5. Goodfellas - $46,836,000
Top 10 Jack Nicholson Films - Domestic Box Office
1. Batman - $251,188,000
2. As Good As It Gets - $148,478,000
3. A Few Good Men - $141,340,000
4. Anger Management - $135,645,000
5. Something's Gotta Give - $124,728,000
6. One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest - $108,981,000
7. Terms of Endearment - $108,423,000
8. About Schmidt - $65,016,000
9. Wolf - $65,002,000
10. The Witches of Eastwick - $63,766,000
Top 5 Leonardo DiCaprio Films - Domestic Box Office
1. Titanic - $600,788,000
2. Catch Me If You Can - $164,615,000
3. The Aviator - $102,610,000
4. Gangs of New York - $77,812,000
5. The Man In the Iron Mask - $56,968,000
Top 5 Matt Damon Films - Domestic Box Office
1. Saving Private Ryan - $216,540,000
2. Ocean's Eleven - $183,417,000
3. The Bourne Supremacy - $176,241,000
4. Good Will Hunting - $138,433,000
5. Ocean's Twelve - $125,544,000
Top 5 Mark Wahlberg Films - Domestic Box Office
1. The Perfect Storm - $182,618,000
2. Planet of the Apes - $180,011,000
3. The Italian Job - $106,128,000
4. Four Brothers - $74,494,000
5. Three Kings - $60,652,000
Top 5 Martin Sheen Films - Domestic Box Office
1. Catch Me If You Can - $164,615,000
2. Apocalypse Now - $78,784,000
3. JFK - $70,405,000
4. The American President - $60,079,000
5. Spawn - $54,870,000
All-Time Top 5 Organized Crime Films - Domestic Box Office
1. The Firm - $158,348,000
2. The Godfather - $134,966,000
3. Analyze This - $106,885
4. Road To Perdition - $104,454,000
5. Godfather III - $66,666,000
All-Time Top 5 Remakes of Asian Films - Domestic Box Office
1. Godzilla (1998) - $136,314,000
2. The Ring - $129,128,000
3. The Grudge - $110,359,000
4. Eight Below - $81,612,000
5. The Ring Two - $76,231,000
Dane Cook is a shameless self-promoter. He's got a huge following, but I don't think he's especially funny. Maybe it's a generational thing, but I've got to give him credit for promoting himself relentlessly using a MySpace page and a lame reality show on HBO. In Employee of the Month (Lionsgate), he teams with Jessica Simpson (are they a couple or not?) and Dax Shepard and Andy Dick in a lowbrow comedy set in a Costco-like bulk discount retailer.
Simpson may have some box office appeal. Dukes of Hazzard managed to top $80 million last summer, but the Under 25s who might get lured to the multiplex for this one are more likely to see Texas Chainsaw Massacre: The Beginning (New Line). Unless everybody on Dane Cook's buddy list shows up, Employee of the Month will be limited to $8-$11 million.
Employee of the Month (Lionsgate) By The Numbers
Top 5 Dane Cook Films - Domestic Box Office
1. Stuck On You - $33,832,000
2. Mystery Men - $29,762,000
3. Mr. 3000 - $21,811,000
4. Torque - $21,215,000
5. Waiting... - $16,124,000
Top 3 Dax Shepard Films - Domestic Box Office
1. Cheaper By the Dozen - $138,614,000
2. Without A Paddle - $58,169,000
3. Zathura: A Space Adventure - $29,230,000
Top 5 Andy Dick Films - Domestic Box Office
1. Dr. Doolittle 2 - $112,952,000
2. Inspector Gadget - $97,403,000
3. Old School - $75,585,000
4. Road Trip - $68,540,000
5. The Cable Guy - $60,240,000
All-Time Top 5 Films Featuring Stars Who Are Primarily Recording Artists - Domestic Box Office
1. Austin Powers In Goldmember (Beyonce) - $213,307,000
2. Chicago (Queen Latifah) - $170,687,000
3. The Bodyguard (Whitney Houston) - $121,945,000
4. 8 Mile (Eminem) - $116,750,000
5. 9 to 5 (Dolly Parton) - $103,290,000
The weekend will almost certainly be won by Texas Chainsaw Massacre: The Beginning. It's a prequel to the remake which scored $80 million in 2003. What sort of twisted family life spawned Leatherface? Like it matters. It's a slasher flick. My sources say that the tracking among Under 25 Males is off the charts. And, having Jordana Brewster in the cast doesn't hurt in that quadrant. I say Texas Chainsaw should score $25-$28 million.
Texas Chainsaw Massacre: The Beginning (New Line) By The Numbers
Top 5 Jordana Brewster Films - Domestic Box Office
1. The Fast & The Furious - $144,533,000
2. The Faculty - $40,283,000
3. Annapolis - $17,127,000
4. D.E.B.S. - $97,446
5. The Invisible Circus - $77,578
Top 5 R. Lee Ermey Films - Domestic Box Office
1. Toy Story 2 - $245,852,000
2. X-Men: The Last Stand - $234,362,000
3. Toy Story - $191,796,000
4. Se7en - $100,125,000
5. Texas Chainsaw Massacre - $80,571,000
Top 5 Horror Films of 2006 - Domestic Box Office
1. Scary Movie 4 - $90,710,000
2. Monster House - $72,595,000
3. Underworld: Evolution - $62,318,000
4. The Omen - $54,607,000
5. Final Destination 3 - $54,098,000
All-Time Top 5 "Slasher" Films - Domestic Box Office
1. Scream - $103,046,000
2. Scream 2 - $101,363,000
3. Scream 3 - $89,143,000
4. Freddy Versus Jason - $82,622,000
5. Texas Chainsaw Massacre (1980) - $80,571,000
Here's how your humble columnist and independent theatre operator sees the weekend.
1. Texas Chainsaw Massacre: The Beginning - $26 million
2. The Departed - $20 million
3. Open Season - $15 million
4. The Guardian - $10 million
5. Employee of the Month - $9 million
Read Part Two
Read Part Three
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