Friday Box Office Analysis
By Kim Hollis
September 11, 2004
After a totally blah Labor Day Weekend, the box office looks to be recovering a little bit, with the butt-kicking action of Milla Jovovich in Resident Evil: Apocalypse leading the way.
Resident Evil: Apocalypse
This sequel to a movie that wasn't necessarily all that well-received in the first place chalked up $9.3 million on Friday, an impressive number no matter how you slice it. With dismal reviews and even fans of the first film admitting that the sequel is a definite step down, Resident Evil: Apocalypse nonetheless drew in both devotees of the classic videogame franchise and probably added some folks who discovered the original movie on DVD. It's headed for a free-fall from here, though. The Friday-to-Sunday multiplier of the first Resident Evil was a not-so-good 2.6, and the sequel is going to be even more front-loaded. With a best-case-scenario multiplier of 2.4, Resident Evil: Apocalypse should be able to manage $22.3 million for its first weekend, which isn't a bad increase over the original's debut frame of $17.7 million. Look for the zombie flick to fall fast and hard next week.
Cellular
A film that actually never looked all that bad, Cellular simply didn't get the strong advertising push it needed to score bigger. Its middling first-day total of $3.3 million isn't going to be enough to help the Kim Basinger starrer make any sort of significant splash over the weekend. Since it is targeted to a more adult audience than Resident Evil 2, Cellular should have a fairly decent hold from Friday-to-Sunday, though. A three-day multiplier of 2.9 should be right in line, which would give the film $9.5 million in its opening frame.
Notable Holdovers
Without a Paddle continues its insane pattern of holding strongly from week to week. The teen-flick from nowhere scored another $1.3 million on Friday, down only 32% from the same day a week ago. It's probably going to finish out the weekend with a decent $5.3 million as this pleasant surprise for Paramount Pictures will turn out to be a decent little money maker.
Meanwhile, Hero fell another 52% from its previous Friday, proving as expected that the bulk of its audience came out in droves in the first two days. It's looking at another $4.4 million for the coffers and will hopefully encourage Miramax to give other excellent foreign films a fair shake when it comes to getting them in theaters.
Paparazzi fell 55% from its total last Friday, which wasn't that good in the first place. This film is going to fade away fast as it's going to manage only $2.8 million at the box office over the next three days. Wicker Park and Vanity Fair both scored the same Friday total that Paparazzi did, with $800,000 added to the bank. Since both of those films had slower starts, the news isn't quite so bad for them - though it certainly isn't great, either. Wicker Park dropped 53% and should finish out the weekend with $2.6 million, while Vanity Fair fell a less heady 43% and will fare best of the three with $2.9 million. The other new release of last weekend, The Cookout, is already out of the top ten, beaten by such stuff as Napoleon Dynamite.
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Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
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Projected
Rank |
Film |
Estimated Gross |
|
1
|
Resident Evil: Apocalypse
|
22.3
|
|
2
|
Cellular
|
9.5
|
|
3
|
Without a Paddle
|
5.3
|
|
4
|
Hero
|
4.4
|
|
5
|
Collateral
|
3.4
|
|
6
|
Vanity Fair
|
2.9
|
|
7
|
Anacondas: The Hunt for the Blood Orchid
|
2.9
|
|
8
|
Paparazzi
|
2.8
|
|
9
|
Napoleon Dynamite
|
2.7
|
|
10
|
Wicker Park
|
2.6
|
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