They Shoot Oscar Prognosticators, Don't They?

Three Billboards Emerges Frontrunner After Wild Guild Week

By J. Don Birnam

January 11, 2018

I wanna join her gang.

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Hump Wednesday: Costumes, Sounds

Wednesday was a respite from big name awards, but not from awards themselves. The Costumer Designers’ Guild gave out their nominations in three categories, much like the Art Directors. And the Oscar normally is pulled from one of those.

This year, in period, they saw fit to mention, who else? The Shape of Water, Dunkirk, Murder on the Orient Express and Greatest Showman, as well as the first guild nomination this season for the obliterated Phantom Thread. But don’t forget the contemporary nominees which include Get Out, 3BB, I, Tonya, and Lady Bird. So The Post had a goose egg day after a bad BAFTA showing, as did CMBYN after a good one. Go figure. The Costumer designers also have a fantasy piece, which again went to the ones you’d expect amongst the more popular movies.

Meanwhile, the Cinema Audio Society or CAS, also went for the ones you’d expect. Actually this makes me realize that my corollary that 3BB and Shape are the two mainstays is not quite complete. Those two are the two mainstays amongst the top prestigious guild. It is Shape and Dunkirk that always show up in the tech guilds. And so it was that those two got nods along Last Jedi, Wonder Woman, and a very deserved nod for Baby Driver. This could also be close to your Oscar lineup. But for the lack of acting awards, Dunkirk is toe to toe with Shape.

Big Beef Thursday: The Directors Speak

Considered one of the Big Three, the Directors’ Guild are normally the last to speak. The PGA and the SAG are of course powerful, but, at the very least when it comes to the Best Director Oscar, one would be forgiven for retiring the category. I can’t remember the last time the winner of the DGA did not also win the Academy Award, as it essentially happens every year. (The last year was the Argo year, though the last time it happened when the winning DGA director was nominated for an Oscar is 2003, without checking).




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Anyway, so the DGA really did something different. There are only two American dudes there. McDonagh of course made it in for the Best Picture frontrunner Three Billboards and Chris Nolan finally made it for Dunkirk. But his spot could be in trouble. The likely winner is Del Toro for Shape of Water, both here and for the Oscar, and he was joined by Greta Gerwig for Lady Bird and Jordan Peele for Get Out. Greta could actually win it. And no black director has ever won this award (I know that sounds like a joke, but it is not). So they could seek to go in either of those directions. What is sure is that, one more, Del Toro and McDonagh’s movies come up again and again. The other three slots seem to rotate.

Sure, those three slots are stopping their spin a bit and are definitely coalescing around Lady Bird, Get Out, and Dunkirk. The Post is quickly fading, as is The Big Sick, Mudbound, and movies you may remember like The Florida Project. This could very well be the year of six nominees.

Up next: The Critics’ Choice Awards are Tonight and the ACE Eddie will nominate. Then we go into win mode. And, of course, the OSCAR nods.


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