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Best Actor: Nailbiter

It is supremely ironic that the wide open Actress race in the nomination stage gave way to a boring fait accompli, whereas the race that seemed easy and locked all season all of a sudden seems not so.

In Best Actor, we never really had that many contenders to begin with, so it is not surprise that the SAG five matched the Oscar five exactly. We have Viggo Mortensen, a welcome addition to the group for his performance as the well-intentioned dad in Captain Fantastic; Andrew Garfield for his performance as the conscientious objector in Hacksaw Ridge, and Ryan Gosling for the love interest in La La Land.

But the race seemed like a complete runaway for the much lauded Casey Affleck in Manchester by the Sea, winner of basically every critic award under the sun, until the SAG upended the entire thing by giving it Denzel Washington, for Fences. Affleck rebounded to win BAFTA, but Washington was criminally not nominated there.

What to do? Well, you can rationalize away the SAG win and stick with Affleck. Washington had never won there, the voting constituency is much more diverse than AMPAS, and lackluster campaigning and sexual harassment allegations have dogged Affleck. Indeed, it’s not uncommon for black actors to win at SAG only to go home empty-handed on Oscar night (think Viola Davis, Idris Elba, etc.).

On the other hand, Washington’s is a superb performance. It’s loud, bombastic, and showy. It’s an actor’s role. It goes well with Viola Davis’s upcoming win. It compliments it. It shows they’re serious about #OscarsSoWhite, etc. etc. There are 1,001 reasons why Washington could and should win. But the converse is also true. Affleck has simply been on a roll all year and his movie is more likely to appeal to what remains the core Oscar constituency - older white men - than Washington’s.

I’m afraid you’re on your own here.

Will win: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Could win: Denzel Washington, Fences

Next Up: The Final Handicap, Best Picture

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