New at BOP: Review: Matrix Resurrections Movie Review: Moonfall Movie Reviews: Scream The #1 Movie in America November Forecast The Many Saints of Newark October Forecast New Trivia Question All site updates Share & Save   Tweet Print this column

Best Adapted Screenplay: Surprise Brewing?

Meanwhile, in Adapted, Moonlight is in the correct category (it was in Original at WGA), but it faces off against Lion, to which it lost at BAFTA and Arrival, which won Best Adapted at the WGA and is obviously a beloved movie. So what gives? They also have to contend with Theodore Melfi’s Hidden Figures and August Wilson for his posthumous adaptation of his own play, Fences. I think this race is wide open.

The smart money is supposedly on Moonlight, but I do wonder if this is another one of those categories where pundit/critics have willed that movie into a “second place” position at the Oscars that it does not actually enjoy. Could this be the place where they recognize Wilson? Or find a single Oscar to give to the surging Hidden Figures? Could Weinstein’s push for Lion, and that movie’s ability to pull at heartstrings, see it through? I honestly could see all five of these wining, particularly given that Arrival is beloved by a core group and has a very smart screenplay. The year The Imitation Game pulled off a surprise victory you had a similar situation brewing - Weinstein was behind the movie, and it featured lovable and unrecognized heroes. It bodes well for Lion and Hidden Figures. This is a tougher race than the easy Moonlight pick suggests, though if he pulls it off Barry Jenkins will join Lee Daniels (Precious) as the only two African American men to win here.

Will win: Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Could win: Eric Heisser: Arrival

Best Actress: Emma’s Show

Here’s an easy race again. The suspense in this category was always who was going to get in, and with at least 10 worthy contenders, it was a nail-biter until the end. Amy Adams and Emily Blunt made a lot of the precursors, though the latter of the two was not really taken seriously as a contender and neither made it.

Meryl Streep sort of came out of nowhere to score her record-breaking 20th nod, and her Globes speech won her at least temporary goodwill, enough to secure her place. Natalie Portman was another one that showed up everywhere - she even won the Critics’ Choice early on, leading some of us to think she had a shot - and seeing her in for her exquisite work in Jackie.

So, two other spots remained, and I was delighted to find out that the Actors’ branch made space for a nuanced, quiet and powerful performance (Ruth Negga’s in Loving), as well as a more daring but also multilayered role in a controversial movie (Isabelle Huppert’s in Elle).

But, as soon as her runaway train movie left the station, there was little doubt actually left that Emma Stone would win an Academy Award for La La Land. Debating the merits of this is not really fruitful for this endeavor. Although I would put her squarely in last place of the five, this does not matter for a whole bevy of reasons. They love the young ingénue, they love giving an acting award to a Best Picture winner, she hasn’t lost at all, not at Globes, not at SAG, not at BAFTA, since that very early loss. And she’s the center of the movie.

You can spin your head into circles if you want - oh, Natalie is better, oh Streep will win as an EFF you to Trump, oh Huppert will win because she’s the veteran actress. Fun to discuss, but a sure miss on your Oscar ballot if you go off any of those improbable cliffs.

Will win: Emma Stone, La La Land
Could win: N/A

Continued:       1       2       3