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TIFF: The Solidification of Support

The most significant contribution from Toronto was to confirm which movies were popular and would play well. As expected, La La Land benefited the most from TIFF, particularly given that a favorite son, Ryan Gosling, was the headliner. The movie was a complete sell out and garnered several additional viewings. It without question won all three festivals at least in terms of word of mouth.

Moonlight, the drama of the African American gay youth, also played very well. Word on the street was high for it. Arrival and Manchester by the Sea, by contrast, played later in the festival relatively speaking, so were a tad less notable even if just slightly so.

Meanwhile, Tom Ford’s new psycho sexual drama Nocturnal Animals, also starring Amy Adams, played well after skipping Telluride on its way from North American from Venice. I don’t see it now as a major awards player—it’s too stylized—but it certainly has a shot at a bunch of technical nominations.

If all holds, though, this could be a sweeps year.

What it means for TIFF’s Future

The interesting question is whether it’s trouble in paradise or whether all is well in Toronto. Do they care that they don’t have the world premieres of the eventual winners? Probably not that much—the audiences are still showing up in droves (how many of them are going to go to Venice or Telluride, realistically), and they can still be heralded as TIFF selections. Moreover, if the People’s Choice award this year—undoubtedly going to La La Land does prevail, they can also count that.

In addition to that, they can still bring in the big name premieres with fancy celebrities to fill up the red carpet. The people behind something like The Magnificent Seven are more likely to attract gawkers than, say, the cast of Spotlight.

But this cake and eating it too will have a price—why would dedicated festival goers even believe in TIFF’s premium choices as anything other than Hollywood fluff? The risk of being the “people’s festival” is precisely that—the aura of exclusivity or originality that they could claim before no longer applies, and can be ceded quickly and dangerously to someone else willing to step in. New York, for example, is very close in time and space.

It’s not to say that festivals like Telluride don’t sell out—obviously they sell out too, as they did this year for Sully. But that remains the exception in Colorado, and is quickly becoming the norm for Toronto.

It will be interesting to see where Toronto goes from here. Attendance seems solid and the lineup was nothing to sneeze out—helped of course by the strong year of movies. But it is still relevant to ask whether they will retain an aura of prestige as opposed to devolve into the “pop culture” film festival. That may not be a bad outcome in terms of attendance, ratings, etc., but the more snobbier fans may wrinkle their noses.

What is Next?

The next major film festival is the New York Film Festival, though they’re showcasing most of the movies we are talking about, with the exception of the documentary The 13th by Ava DuVarney. And NYFF sometimes shows a surprise premiere mid-festival. If that happens, look to Scorsese’s Silence as a possible contender (he has done so before there, with Hugo), or Ang Lee, whose last film Life of Pi opened in New York, with his Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk.

Aside from those two, people are talking about Mel Gibson’s new film, which was seen at Venice but not the other festivals, as a potential contender. Fences, with Viola Davis and Denzel Washington, have potential, as does Hidden Figures, the story of the black women who played a big role in NASA, is also one to look out for. Meanwhile, Jessica Chastain’s gun lobby drama Miss Sloane could be a player at least in the acting race.

So, there is still some stuff to look forward to—and of course the public’s reactions to all of these films still has to be factored in. But the question remains, have we already seen, like in so many of the past years, the eventual Best Picture winner in these festivals?

If you believe that the answer is yes, than the good money is on La La Land being that film.

We will be back after Sunday’s announcement of the People’s Choice Award to see whether we were right and what that means for the Oscar race.

Thoughts? Twitter: @jdonbirnam
Instagram: @awards_predix

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