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2. Silence (Martin Scorsese) Five of Scorsese’s last six movies have been Best Picture nominees (with The Departed winning, of course), and with Hugo netting several Oscars. This time, he focuses on the story of two Jesuit priests who travel to Japan as missionaries, and the challenges they face. I am a big fan of Scorsese, so putting him on this list is perhaps somewhat of a fanboy move, but it is hard to argue with the team he has put together, including his longtime editing partner and three-time Oscar winner Thelma Schoonmaker, composer Howard Shore, and cinematographer Rodrigo Prieto (who did Wolf of Wall Street and Argo) and who, as a Mexican national, perhaps can continue the stranglehold in that category by Mexicans, after three years of Lubezki.

If there is a knock or concern about the team he has assembled is that the movie stars Andrew Garfield, who has not exactly blown people away with his acting. Still, I expect Scorsese to deliver with the poignancy he’s known for, and nothing would please me more than to see him take the stage one more time.

1. Birth of a Nation (Nate Parker)

But it is without question The Birth of a Nation that many have already crowned the Best Picture winner in 2017. The movie, by the actor Nate Parker in his first directorial turn, tells the story of a slave uprising in Virginia in the 1830s. The subject matter is for obvious reasons, in any year, Oscar bait. Put that on the heels of two years running of the #OscarsSoWhite controversy, and it is almost impossible to imagine that this movie will not be a serious contender to win it all next year.

The movie, indeed, already made history as the most expensive acquisition in a festival ever: Fox Searchlight, the distributors of Best Picture winner 12 Years a Slave, paid $17.5 million for rights to the movie. And, although no man has ever directed himself to a Best Actor win, Parker will strive to be the first.

The question, of course, is whether a movie that is anointed earlier than any ever as the surefire Best Picture winner can ever withstanding that momentum. Great movies like Boyhood and Brokeback Mountain have not been able to sustain the scrutiny, pressure, and even disdain that comes with that label. As I discussed in my column about potential Oscar winners in 2016 last year, the best way to do it is to go unnoticed. Appearing on lists such as these almost guarantees a failure.

But, if any movie is going to break that streak, surely, it will be the one that galvanizes the racial controversies that have plagued Hollywood over the last few years, won’t it?

I guess you’ll have to stick around to find out

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