A-List: Top Five Contenders for Oscars 2017

By J. Don Birnam

March 8, 2016

Red Swan.

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5. The Founder (Weinstein)

Although director John Lee Hancock is not yet a household name (he did direct The Blind Side and Saving Mr. Banks), here are some household names for you: Michael Keaton (star of two Best Picture winners in a row), Harvey Weinstein, and Ray Kroc. The Founder, the next movie backed by the Weinstein’s (who have had dreadful luck at the Oscars after back-to-back victories in 2010 and 2011), tells the story of the founder of America’s most recognizable fast food chain. And it stars an actor whose fortunes are rising and revived, and who has accumulated a lot of good will among powerful Hollywood elites.

It remains to be seen whether the movie will be bogged down in the clichéd sentimentalities that arguably kept Hancock’s last two movies from doing better with awards, but the subject matter sure is promising. Moreover, could this finally be the victory that Keaton is looking for, after that near miss two years ago for Birdman? (To be fair, Harvey does have another potential contender up his sleeve, Lion, about an Indian kid searching for his real parents, but somehow this movie feels more up the Academy’s lane).

I’m loving it.

4. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (Ang Lee)

Oscar nerds: has any person won two Best Director Oscars without netting a Best Picture win? I do not know the answer to that question other than to say Ang Lee, who returns to the stage after winning for Life of Pi with this movie about a group of Iraq soldiers who are the subject of a tribute during a football game.

If you thought a movie about McDonald’s founder Kroc was strong Americana, try this movie on for size. Sure, it is director by a Taiwanese man, but it also stars Kristen Stewart, Steve Martin, and Vin Diesel. With most expecting Lee’s signature careful and sentimental moviemaking to make an appearance, it is hard to imagine that this movie will not resonate enough to at least be in the conversation. The question is whether Lee can finally break that curse and win it all?




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3. The Girl on the Train (Tate Taylor)

Despite my warning against it, I could not help but predict a female-centric movie to make the list. Tate Taylor, who successfully adapted the beloved novel The Help into a Best Picture contender, looks to do for this novel what David Fincher could not for Gone Girl. But unlike The Help and more like Gone Girl, the story is a psycho-sexual thriller that has kept readers enthralled since 2015.

The adaption stars Emily Blunt as the titular girl, who every day on her way to work passes by her ex-husband’s house, where he now lives with his new wife. You can imagine the rest. Suffice it to say that a delicious Emily Blunt can always be counted on at least for wicked laughter, and that lesser psychological thrillers adapted from novels, from The Martian to Room, always do well with the Oscars. It is not hard to see why: movies that have familiar and tested stories tend to do well. It is somewhat incredible, in fact, that the last two winners of Best Picture are wholly original stories, although Spotlight at least is based on a true story. Could this somewhat campy popcorn novel make a dent? Either way, I can’t wait to find out.


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