New at BOP: Review: Matrix Resurrections Movie Review: Moonfall Movie Reviews: Scream The #1 Movie in America November Forecast The Many Saints of Newark October Forecast New Trivia Question All site updates Share & Save   Tweet Print this column

Findings By Row (Aka, By Year)

• 2006 really was the wackiest year in recent memory. The critics were split amongst themselves, as were the industry groups. Then, DGA triumphed. That would mean Revenant wins this year except…say it with me now… “The preferential ballot.”



• 2008 was the last year of a complete and utter juggernaut, with Slumdog Millionaire sweeping every single guild group and a couple of critics as well. No Country for Old Men was equally formidable, but it did lose at least BAFTA.



• Juggernauts in the industry are increasingly common: the King’s Speech and Argo swept the table, and The Hurt Locker, Birdman, and The Artist nabbed all but one of the major industry awards. Not this year, where The Revenant has two but the others have one apiece.






---

Advertisement

---




• 2010 is the clearest year of an absolute divide between critics and industry. Then, The Social Network swept every single critical group and The Kings’ Speech every single industry group. I doubt we will ever see something so stark again. This year, there is something somewhat close to that. Spotlight did actually very well with critics, but has lost most industry awards.



• 2014 is arguably similar, with Boyhood winning a significant number (even if not all) of critics groups, but losing resoundingly to a near Birdman sweep in the industry.



• This year stands out for an interesting fact: The Big Short has won only a single one of these awards, the PGA. For all the stats that people throw out there about The Revenant not winning because of no screenplay nomination, because of no SAG ensemble, etc., The Big Short would be the first movie of late to win with just one major precursor under its belt. Sure, it’s won tech guilds, but those are mostly meaningless to Best Picture.

Confused even more? Not sure about you, but this analysis actually did shore up my The Revenant pick, somewhat.

Legend:

NYFCC: New York Film Critics’ Circle
NBR: National Board of Review
LAFCA: Los Angeles Film Critics Association
NSFC: National Society of Film Critics
PGA: Producers Guild of America
DGA: Directors Guild of America
SAG: Screen Actors’ Guild
BAFTA: British Academy of Film and Television Arts
* Indicates that the movie did not receive a Best Picture nomination
Bold: Indicates an industry voting group, as opposed to a critical voting group
Italics: Are for years in which the preferential ballot was not yet in play.

Historical Oscar Precursor Analysis
	NYFCC	NBR	LAFCA	NSFC	Golden Globes	Critics Choice	PGA	DGA	SAG	BAFTA	Oscar
2006	United 93'	Letters From Iwo Jima	Letters From Iwo Jima	Pan's Labrynth'	Babel	The Departed	Little Miss Sunshine	The Departed	Little Miss Sunshine	The Queen	The Departed
2007	No Country For Old Men	No Country For Old Men	There Will be Blood	There Will be Blood	Atonement	No Country For Old Men	No Country For Old Men	No Country For Old Men	No Country For Old Men	Atonement	No Country For Old Men
2008	Milk	Slumdog Millionaire	Wall-E'	Waltz With Bashir'	Slumdog Millionaire	Slumdog Millionaire	Slumdog Millionaire	Slumdog Millionaire	Slumdog Millionaire	Slumdog Millionaire	Slumdog Millionaire
2009	The Hurt Locker	Up In the Air	The Hurt Locker	The Hurt Locker	Avatar	The Hurt Locker	The Hurt Locker	The Hurt Locker	Inglorious Basterds	The Hurt Locker	The Hurt Locker
2010	The Social Network	The Social Network	The Social Network	The Social Network	The Social Network	The Social Network	The King's Speech	The King's Speech	The King's Speech	The King's Speech	The King's Speech
2011	The Artist	Hugo	The Descendants	Melancholia'	The Descendants/The Artist	The Artist	The Artist	The Artist	The Help	The Artist	The Artist
2012	Zero Dark Thirty	Zero Dark Thirty	Amour	Amour	Argo	Argo	Argo	Argo	Argo	Argo	Argo
2013	American Hustle	Her	Gravity/Her	Inside Llewyn Davis'	12 Years a Slave	12 Years a Slave	12 Years a Slave/Gravity	Gravity	12 Years a Slave	12 Years a Slave	12 Years a Slave
2014	Boyhood	A Most Violent Year'	Boyhood	Goodbye to Language'	Boyhood	Boyhood	Birdman	Birdman	Birdman	Boyhood	Birdman
2015	Carol	Mad Max	Spotlight	Spotlight	The Revenant	Spotlight	The Big Short	The Revenant	Spotlight	The Revenant	????????
	3 for 9	2 for 9	1 for 9	1 for 9	4 for 9	7 for 9	8 for 9	8 for 9	6 for 9	6 for 9

Continued:       1       2