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Lead Acting: Leo and Brie Locks

And not to bury the lede, but the lead acting races are not any more suspenseful than the writing awards. In Best Actor, the nominees are Leonardo DiCaprio for The Revenant, and I’m not sure who else. I hear, however, that Michael Fassbender made it in for Steve Jobs, Bryan Cranston landed his first nomination for Trumbo, Eddie Redmayne is back, hoping to repeat, this time for The Danish Girl, and that Matt Damon snuck in for The Martian.

On top of the fact that Leo won the Globe, the SAG, and BAFTA (I don’t know of an example in the last 10 years of someone wining that trifecta and losing the Oscar), the other performances are not powerful enough to defeat him. Sure, Fassbender knocks it out of the park, Cranston is a beloved Hollywood persona and Redmayne provided a moving performance. But Cranston failed to break through even in the friendly SAG territory, where a lot of his TV pals voted, and Fassbender stars in a movie that nobody liked.

The narrative that DiCaprio is overdue has taken hold, and the Internet has worked itself up to a frenzy of support for him. Regardless of whether you think this is DiCaprio’s best performance or not, five nominations certainly is “overdue” territory around these parts. If anything else wins I will be stunned, and the Academy will lose so much popularity it will look back with longing on the good old days of when #OscarsSoWhite was their biggest problem.

Will win: Leonardo DiCaprio
Could win: N/A

Lead actress is similarly locked up. Despite rumors that category confusion could bring in Alicia Vikander or Rooney Mara into the race, those two ended up in supporting (the latter with nearly 70% of the movie’s run time under her belt). The person that breathed the biggest sigh of relief when that happened was undoubtedly Brie Larson, nominated for Room, as it cleared her path to victory. Also nominated are past winners Cate Blanchett for Carol and Jennifer Lawrence for Joy, past nominee and my personal favorite, Saoirse Ronan for Brooklyn, and newcomer Charlotte Rampling for 45 Years.

Rampling may have had an outside chance until she made politically incorrect comments about the #OscarsSoWhite issues, and Lawrence stars in a movie that was widely panned. If anyone was going to give Larson a run for her money it would be Ronan, for her moving, touching, and subtle performance.

But, it is Larson that, likeDiCaprio, won SAG, Globe and BAFTA. She’s sailing to the win in ways that bring envy to presidential candidates embroiled in long-running primary battles. Larson gives the showiest, loudest performance of the bunch, is in a Best Picture nominee, and is the popular newcomer to the scene. Her win is also assured.

Updated and now final Best Actor and updated Best Actress power rankings are linked.

Will win: Brie Larson
Could win: N/A

Next up we will look at much more difficult and intriguing races: those for Director and Supporting Actor and Actress. Then Best Picture. “It will all be over soon.”

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