They Shoot Oscar Prognosticators, Don't They?

The Writing and Acting Races

By J. Don Birnam

February 16, 2016

Whatever Brick Tamland did this time, it must be really bad.

New at BOP:
Share & Save
Digg Button  
Print this column

Original and Adapted Screenplay: Spotlight and The Big Short Locks.

So let’s return to handicapping the races, shall we? We are down to the eight main categories. Four of them are easy calls on Oscar night.

For Best Original Screenplay, the nominees were Spotlight scripters Tom McCarthy and Josh Singer; Bridge of Spies, by the Coen brothers; Ex Machina, written by Alex Garland; Straight Outta Compton, by Andrea Berloff and Jonathan Herman; and Inside Out, by Pete Docter and Meg LeFauve. This is an easy call because it is the easy place for the Academy to reward the respected Spotlight. The script just won the Writers Guild Award on Saturday, followed by BAFTA on Sunday, and has no real challenger.

The Coen brothers gave Spielberg a tight script, but they are past winners. Meanwhile, I doubt the Academy will want to touch Straight Outta Compton’s sole nomination with a ten-foot pole, given that they managed to nominate the only white individuals associated with the movie. The nomination for Inside Out shows it’s beloved within the Academy and that it will win Animated Feature, but would be a stunning result if it won. And while Ex Machina was very well liked by the industry, its script was its weakest link if you ask me. No, this one is Spotlight’s by a landslide.

Updated, and really, final, Original Screenplay rankings are here.

Will win: Spotlight
Could win: N/A





Advertisement



In Adapted Screenplay, meanwhile, the competition was a little stiffer, but the outcome is no less well known. The nominees ended up being Adam McKay and Charles Randolph for The Big Short (from Michael Lewis’ book), Phyllis Nagy for Carol, Drew Goddard for The Martian, Nick Hornby for Brooklyn, and Emma Donoghue for adapting her own Room. Again, the outcome is not really in doubt here. The Big Short, just like Spotlight, won at the Writers’ Guild Awards and then won at BAFTA. It is the obvious place to reward one of the leading Best Picture contenders.

The real intrigue in this category is that The Revenant did not make it in, and what that means for its Best Picture chances. If you ask me, The Revenant’s miss here is more a sign of the crowded field (even Aaron Sorkin was looked over for Steve Jobs) than the weakness of the movie. It sure didn’t stop it from winning at BAFTA, where it had no screenplay nomination either. In any case, The Big Short is likely the deserving winner, as adapting a Michael Lewis analytical novel into a movie with a dramatic arc is no easy task. All other adaptations in the race range from good to great, but this one will be an easy win for The Big Short.

Updated, and also final, Best Adapted Screenplay rankings, are here.

Will win: The Big Short
Could win: N/A


Continued:       1       2       3       4

     


 
 

Need to contact us? E-mail a Box Office Prophet.
Thursday, March 28, 2024
© 2024 Box Office Prophets, a division of One Of Us, Inc.