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The best and happiest surprise of the Globes was that they did not fall for category fraud and gave both Alicia Vikander and Rooney Mara lead nominations for their performances in The Danish Girl and Carol. Of course, they can do that, because they have more nods to play with, but that makes both female acting races fascinatingly interesting at the Oscars. Sadly, that displaced Charlotte Rampling from the Golden Globes line-up, which could happen at the Oscars.

So the two female acting races will be the hardest to predict this year. If Mara and Vikander do move to lead, that squeezes out Rampling and maybe Lawrence, but it also gives space for other contenders in Supporting, like Helen Mirren for Trumbo (she got in at Globes as well), and Kristen Stewart, despite her miss with HFPA.

Despite all the space, however, there is one snub to be mentioned: Johnny Depp did not get in for lead actor. That has to hurt on the heels of the SAG nod, and Will Smith’s inclusion for Concussion clearly leaves those last few slots wide open at the Oscars. Meanwhile, Cranston got in again, sealing his fate as a serious Best Actor contender after the double SAG+Globes nods.

Finally, the Fox people must have breathed a sigh of relief to get some life back into The Martian. Damon made it in, the movie made it into the Comedy category, and Ridley Scott received a nomination for Best Director. On the other side of the ledger, Brooklyn took another serious hit, along with The Danish Girl. This kind of stylized, international picture is right up the HFPA’s normal wheelhouse, and their failure to get in does not bode well for their future either.

As I said last time, the Globes can actually be the kiss of death for the Oscar. Too often they try to go with what they think the industry is going to do, but as the first major group to give out awards (before all the major guilds), they are often ahead of the curve, or too late to notice the momentum shifts. This year, they are announcing their winners before the Oscars even announce their nominations! So the predictive value of the Globes will be further imperiled.

Golden Globe Big Winners: Room, The Big Short, The Revenant, The Martian, Steve Jobs

Golden Globe Big Losers: Brooklyn, The Danish Girl

Golden Globe Early Picks: Spotlight and The Big Short for movies, Carol for Director, Leo and Matt Damon for lead actors, Larson and Lawrence for lead actresses, and Rylance and Kate Winslet for supporting

The Road Ahead

Hey, remember the critics? Lost in the hoopla of this week’s exciting announcements is that the critical awards will continue. The third big critics group, the L.A. Critics, did speak last Sunday. I have to brag a little and say that I almost exactly nailed the predictions for what this group would do when I posted them a couple of weeks back. As I expected, they went for Spotlight in Picture, although surprisingly for George Miller’s directing of Mad Max. They also fell for Fassbender in Steve Jobs, and Mark Rylance was their runner-up in supporting (I had him winning), losing, somewhat surprisingly, to Michael Shannon in 99 Homes (who has had a phenomenal week and is now locked in). In the female categories, they went for Saoirse Ronan (she’s gaining heat), which I did not see coming - I had them going for Vikander, which they did do, in Supporting.

Other critics also spoke, including the D.C. and Boston critics. Boston liked Spotlight for Picture and Todd Haynes for directing Carol (Todd McCarthy, Spotlight’s director, has not received a major critics’ citation). They also gave accolades to Leo and Charlotte Rampling, along with Mark Rylance and Kristen Stewart. Those four seem to have a nomination almost sewn up.

So, that is it for major nominations announcement until 2016, when the major guilds will begin speaking. Their timing should make them a bit less schizophrenic than SAG. In the meantime, we should hear from a lot of the other major cities’ critical groups, but those tend to fall in line with the consensuses you see from the first few ones. Except a lot of Spotlight in Picture, Haynes/Miller in Director, Leo in acting, etc.

Next week: With this wacky, unpredictable Oscar race, is this the year we will finally get 10 nominees?

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