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But the Academy has proven for at least 10 years that it does not like popcorn movies, even if they are higher brow like The Dark Knight, begrudgingly nominating flicks like Avatar, which at least had that element of respectability behind it. It just seems hard to imagine complete fluff like The Martian (a movie that I enjoyed, mind you) breaking through when Gravity, Avatar, and The Dark Knight did not.

It is possible, I suppose, that Ridley Scott (who lost out on Best Director the year his Gladiator won Best Picture) could be overdue a career Oscar, but I still doubt it. Argo and Gravity had a purported tone of "serious" that The Martian lacks, fun as it may be for audiences.

The real question with The Martian is whether the Academy is going to yet again thumb its nose at the box office and at what audiences want.

The Box Office Elephant in the Room

There is no denying that, so far, the movies that are expected to contend seriously for Best Picture are not doing well at the box office. Steve Jobs had a disappointing opening and suffered what a fellow BOP columnist called a "devastating blow" its second weekend. Passion projects that could have done well at least in acting races - Freeheld, Suffragette, Truth - have not found audiences beyond very small niches.

The Toronto crowd-pleaser Room, based on an internationally beloved novel, has had very small business in limited release. And even reliable box office draw Spielberg, who drew in hundreds of millions for his last serious contender, Lincoln, in 2012, has had relatively modest returns so far for the Best Picture contender Bridge of Spies.

And given the release patterns and subject matters of upcoming releases from Brooklyn to Carol to The Danish Girl (and even Spotlight!) it is hard to see any of them breaking significant box office records.

To be sure, the 1990s adage that box office poison meant Oscar doomsday has long been debunked (remember when The Hurt Locker could not possibly win Best Picture?). And, year after year, prognosticators are left to wonder whether the Oscars are really going to ignore the big box office draws and, for the most part, the Oscars do.

But it is worth asking the same question again this year because the gap between the big box movies and the Oscar contenders has grown even wider. Even last year, the Academy nominated American Sniper, the highest grossing movie of the year, and a couple of the nominees crossed the $100 million threshold. This year, if the current predictions hold, we could end up with no contender above that mark (unless The Martian sneaks in) which would be a historical first. Indeed, none of my top ten likely Best Picture nominees right now, other than The Martian, are anywhere near that box office goal.

What explains this widening disparity? There are many theories, but the answer could be as simple as math. The average American sees between four and five movies in theaters every year. This year, there are a particularly high number of must-see events, including Jurassic World, the final Hunger Games installment and Star Wars: The Force Awakens. With three of those four or five slots occupied, it is possible that there is simply little room left for people to delve into these other movies. It could be as simple as that.

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