Monday Morning Quarterback Part II

By BOP Staff

July 22, 2015

No worse than Aquaman, really.

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Jason Barney: With the positive reviews, strong weekend opening, and the relative cost, this is going to be another huge win for Universal. The $35 million budget number is easily going to be in the rear view mirror by Tuesday at the latest, then marketing costs will be eaten into over the next few weekends.

I would expect the holds to be pretty good, as word-of-mouth could substantially continue the success of this one.

Ryan Kyle: Another weekend, another win for Universal. This is a sweet opening for Apatow that harkens back to Knocked Up compared to his more recent dwindling returns. The reviews have been fantastic and the Friday-to-Saturday bump is very encouraging in terms of the audience word-of-mouth being just as strong as the critics. For a $35 million production cost - and a solid chance at hitting $100 million - Trainwreck is another profitable hit for the studio.

Michael Lynderey: It's kind of surprising, even though these are pretty much the numbers I expected. Judd Apatow's movies have rarely opened this high even with more established stars, but here we have another comedy that's almost certainly going to clear $100 million after some good legs (like Spy). As a matter of fact, it seems Apatow's movies are usually much more successful when he's breaking out a previously little known actor (Steve Carell in The 40-Year-Old-Virgin and Seth Rogen in Knocked Up) than when he's using more well-known names (Sandler and 2009-era Rogen in Funny People, and Paul Rudd in This is 40). Teaming with Schumer definitely seems to have brought Apatow's box office mojo back, and it'll probably help whatever he has lined up next.




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David Mumpower: If I can go way back with an analogy, this debut reminds me of The Truth about Cats and Dogs. It was a small-scale release by the standards of the mid-90s, and it was also the perfect vehicle to give Janeane Garofalo a chance to become a lead actress. The later results were predictable, because Garofalo unfortunately wasn't for everyone, but that one film was a solid hit relative to expectations.

Trainwreck is slightly different in that this is Schumer's first real appearance in a major film, while Garofalo had famously gotten her start in Reality Bites. The situation is otherwise similar, though. Both women are extremely funny and likable, and they're trying to translate those characteristics into unconventional romantic comedies.

The box office here indicates that enough people were interested in Schumer to keep her relevant for another try, but it's not enough to secure her future. In order words, she's somewhat passed the initial test thanks to the Judd Apatow brand. She'll need to do more to sustain a career as a lead, though.


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