Monday Morning Quarterback Part I

By BOP Staff

March 3, 2015

Oh no! Jon Stewart turned heel!

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Edwin Davies: I think this is pretty solid in terms of the genre, since R-rated con artist movies aren't a huge draw, and that ultimately is probably a more important factor here than Will Smith's involvement. Him being the star was probably a big component of why the film opened in the double-digits (it's hard to imagine it opening to this level if it was Margot Robbie and someone less famous) but the ads were a bit murky and unfocused when it came to selling the story, so it was a little hamstrung. It didn't help that the adverse weather probably made a lot of people decide not to go to see films this weekend, but even then I don't think the impact was so great that it prevented it from being a runaway hit.

The film's quality will probably be its ace in the hole in the weeks ahead. It's got good reviews and decent word-of-mouth, and the directors' previous film Crazy, Stupid, Love was a film with a similar tone and quality that turned a low opening weekend into a very respectable final total. If people are waiting to see what the response to the film is like, possibly because they're burned out on Will Smith movies, then it could be in for a long run.

David Mumpower: Over the last decade, we chronicled what a consistent performer Will Smith had been. He had an amazing run of consecutive $100+ million domestic performers, and there was a solid argument that he was the most reliable box office opener in the world. And that has to factor into this discussion. 90 percent of Smith's last 11 starring roles have earned $100 million. The two that didn't, Seven Pounds and After Earth, still managed $60 to $70 million. At this point, Focus is no lock to reach that total, which means it has a solid chance to become Smith's worst performer since 2001(!).

When we look at the underlying mechanics of Focus, it's a con movie starring an actress who has starred in one previous major release in her life. So, this was all on Smith, and I think we can reasonably conclude that he is trying to enter the Suave Middle-Aged Man part of his career. Comparisons have been made between Focus and Out of Sight, which only serves to get people's hopes up for no reason. I think that's the right move for him at this stage, but the early results are mediocre at best. Focus feels a best case scenario for a non-Will Smith release yet a worst case scenario result for a Will Smith film, if that makes sense.

I do wonder if there is any panic involved with the Suicide Squad production given how Focus is a trial run for Smith and Robbie.




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Kim Hollis: The Lazarus Effect, a PG-13 rated horror film from Relativity, earned $10.2 million. What do you think of this result?

Jason Barney: It is pretty sweet. It is on the high end of what I was expecting.

Lazarus Effect was made for a very cheap $3 million and it earned a bit more than that from its early shows. When the weekend gross is totaled, Lazarus Effect will have basically taken care of its marketing costs as well. As with all horror films it needed this weekend to do well, because the drop is usually pretty substantial. With an RottenTomatoes score in the teens, I would expect this one to drop like a rock. The beauty is it won’t have to stay around for very long because it is already profitable.

I consider this an interesting run for Relativity, as for a smaller studio, they are making some good financial decisions and becoming more relevant. The Lazarus Effect is making money. Black or White will more than break even. The Woman in Black 2: Angel of Death likely earned a bit. So individually, all of their early 2015 films put a little money in the bank. They churned out eight films in 2014, and the only serious misstep would be Best of Me. Pretty much everything else has earned them a little at a time. Whether it is employing aging stars like Kevin Costner or Pierce Brosnan or staying with formulaic horror films, they are doing okay. 2013 was a tough year for them, where Paranoia and Free Birds were expensive projects that did not do very well.


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