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“Boogaloo and Graham” is my favorite. It recounts the story of two young brothers living in troubled Northern Ireland in the 1970s, and how their father’s purchase of two chicks for them marked their childhood. It is adorable and quick, and just plain funny, but for the most part the funnily touching films don’t win here, so I’m not picking this one, either.

“Parvaneh” has been picked by other pundits, and I could see it. An Afghani girl living in rural Switzerland travels to Zurich to wire money to her ailing father back home, and encounters an unexpected friend in the journey. The movie is uplifting if emotionally and intellectually facile (young immigrant woman discovers a new world and is rescued by friendly white savior). But I could see this pulling it off as it will attract a lot of the “feel good” vote. Plus, “Parvaneh” was already commended by the Academy, winning the Silver Medal at the Student Academy Awards in 2013, so perhaps it will take home an actual Oscar this time around.

An entry from Israel, “Aya,” is the longest of the bunch (at 39 minutes, almost documentary short length) and has been commended and awarded in film festivals. It is the most emotionally intriguing of the bunch, telling the story of a woman who purposefully picks up a stranger at the airport, pretending to be her anointed limo driver, and drives him to his remote destination. To me, the movie seemed rather pointless, but I can appreciate the artistry of the music and lighting and the emotional and exquisite acting by the two characters. In its way, it stays with you, and I could see this winning.

But I’m going for the obvious choice here again, and that is the British “The Phone Call.” Starring the beloved Sally Hawkins and past-Oscar winner Jim Broadbent, “The Phone Call” tells the story of a woman who works at a crisis center and receives a call from a man who is in the process of committing suicide. Hawkins delivers a moving, exacting performance, and the film is quick-paced, gripping, and dramatic. The Academy may go for the showier piece in “Aya,” or the feel-good movie “Parvaneh,” but I’ll predict the best of the bunch in my pool and mark down “The Phone Call.”

Best Documentary Short

Watching the documentary shorts is perhaps the lowest point of covering the Oscar race, as most pieces are skilled at making their points (which are rarely uplifting) quickly, forcefully, and memorably. This year was no exception, as there is not a happy film in the bunch.

The easiest one to discard, in my view, is “White Earth,” which examines, I suppose, some of the consequences of increased oil-rigging in the northern American plains. They interview three children and an immigrant to explore what their life is like. Not much happens, and no real point is made. This will not win.

Some think that Mexico’s “La Parka (The Reaper)” has a shot. It is likely the most stylistic of the bunch. It tells the story, and contains some of the philosophical musings about death, of a butcher who has been in charge of killing cattle at the startling pace of thousands every week for over 20 years. The imagery is subtly disturbing, and the comparisons between the slaughter of animals and the inevitableness of human death are understated but very chilling. The Reaper, himself, is a disturbed character. As an artistic feature, “La Parka” is the best of the bunch, but it doesn’t feel like much of a documentary and doesn’t tug at the heart strings as much as the others. I’ve seen a couple of websites picking this, but I would not mark this down on my pool. It just doesn’t feel “important” enough.

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