New at BOP: Review: Matrix Resurrections Movie Review: Moonfall Movie Reviews: Scream The #1 Movie in America November Forecast The Many Saints of Newark October Forecast New Trivia Question All site updates Share & Save   Tweet Print this column

Best Adapted Screenplay

The big surprise here was the snub of Gillian Flynn for adapting her own novel into Gone Girl. Instead, they made room for Whiplash, as unlike precursors, the Academy deemed it an original screenplay. As admired as that movie is for many things, I don’t think its screenplay is one of them, so we can scratch that off the list.

Nor would I take seriously the chances of Paul Thomas Anderson for adapting Inherent Vice. Although the screenplay is perhaps the best of the bunch, the movie is not a Best Picture contender like the other nominees, and it is just happy to be here.

For the win I’d look between American Sniper, The Theory of Everything, and The Imitation Game. If I felt a groundswell of support for Sniper (for example, a surprise Clint Eastwood DGA win), I would give it more chances. But I don’t see it happening at the moment. More important, Sniper will or can be lauded in other races like Sound and even Actor. The Theory of Everything, similarly, can win score or actor. The Imitation Game, by contrast, has very little wiggle room left in the other categories, and it is considered the current third place for Best Picture. With Weinstein behind it, I think it should pull through at least in one race and this is the most logical one for that to happen.

Best Original Screenplay

This is perhaps one of the toughest categories of the night, as any of three could win. I was happy to see Dan Gilroy get in for the excellent Nightcrawler, but that movie missed elsewhere and is in a distant third. Foxcatcher is also a welcome entry, but again, the race here is boiling down to the big three.

In a normal year, a win for Wes Anderson for The Grand Budapest Hotel would make sense. It would be similar to last year’s win for Her. They respect the originality of the movie and its creative writing, but want to go elsewhere for the Best Picture prize, so they give this as a consolation prize. That scenario may still play out. The Academy may not want to give Linklater, Picture, Director, and Writing. Indeed, all three of Linklater, Inarritu, and Anderson are up for all three awards. How awesome would it be if they just split them between the three of them? If they are thinking that way, then the least important of the three will go to Anderson for Budapest Hotel.

However, watch out for an early win here by either Boyhood or Birdman. That could signify which movie is going to come out on top. Personally, I have a very hard time visualizing a Boyhood win here. It is a fantastic directorial achievement, an amazing project, but is the screenplay that innovative? Not in my view. Birdman, by contrast, starts and revolves around the dialogue and the crazy characters. Thus, a win by Birdman here may not mean much for its Best Picture chances, whereas a win for Boyhood would, in my view.

Right now, I’m going to chalk down Birdman for the win here, but I could see this going to Anderson very easily.

Continued:       1       2       3       4