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It may have some trouble nabbing the ultimate prize as the movie remains true to its director - nuanced, complex, and unforgiving at times - but it seems almost impossible not to pencil it down for a smattering of nominations from Picture and Director, to Actor and Screenplay.

NYFF In Summation

Overall, I have to say, at the risk of sounding too much like a homeboy fan, that I was much more impressed with the four movies I saw in New York than the nine I enjoyed in Toronto last month. Just comparing the opening night selection of both (The Judge for Toronto and Gone Girl for New York), as well as the closing night galas (A Little Chaos for Toronto and Birdman for New York), should leave no doubt that the Lincoln Center people are making a serious run at a bigger name and are leaving the Oscar-hungry TIFF selectors in the dusk. TIFF may still ultimately prevail should The Imitation Game make it all the way through, but quality wise I don’t think the race was even close this time around.

What’s Next For the Oscar Race?

Foxcatcher also screened in New York. I did not have opportunity to see it, but it continued to play well. Still, the consensus remains that it is impossibly dark and sorrowful for the Academy, even if it’s a lock for strong acting nominations.

Other movies have a lot of promise, but have not been seen. Thus, while many pundits expect Christopher Nolan’s Interstellar and Angelina Jolie’s Unbroken to have strong chances, it is simply foolish to predict anything about movies that not a single person has seen. Again, movies like Amelia and Australia should disabuse anyone of the notion that a big name and fancy-sounding project is enough to get through to the Best Picture field. The movie has to actually be good.

All we can do right now is point to what we have seen and try to figure out which will go far. I would say that The Imitation Game is a lock for a nod, given the strong audience reception in Toronto. The same goes for Birdman and Foxcatcher given their strong critical performances to date. And, perhaps mostly because of the weak field (I’m having trouble coming up with even give movies right now), I have a hard time seeing Gone Girl missing out on a Best Picture nomination, but it is admittedly teetering at the moment. Others believe that the Grand Budapest Hotel still has a chance, and I suppose that makes sense given the week field. Still others mention the Stephen Hawking biopic The Theory of Everything and the biopic of the British painter J.M.W. Turner, Mr. Turner, as potential Best Picture nominees. Both sound plausible, but I will pass on commenting for sure until I see them.

What’s next, then, is the waiting game. Most of the movies mentioned here will be released to audiences in the coming weeks (with only Unbroken opting for an incredibly high risk gamble of a December release) and thus face their final (or in some cases first) test of the season. Interstellar, which opens in early November, is the most anticipated, as it is completely sight unseen right now. Then, in late November, the critics’ awards will start rolling in, and before you know it the Golden Globes will announce their nominations in mid-December.

Right now, there is a lot of space for the ground to shift. The question is whether any movie will muster the moment to do so, and which one it will be.

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