Daily Box Office Analysis

By David Mumpower

June 25, 2014

Tarzan Is the New Orange Which Was the Previous Black

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If you enjoyed Monday’s box office results, I have great news! There was a repeat on Tuesday. That is not an exaggeration. The top nine (!) movies in North America stayed the same on Tuesday. So, unless the battle for tenth place is your everything in life (and that would be weird), yesterday was more of the same.

The number one movie in North America for the 10th time in 12 days is 22 Jump Street. Is that a coincidence? I say no. My thought process is simple. Ten plus 12 equals twenty two. It’s airtight logic, numerologists! Yes, we are not even out of June yet and I am already getting punchy about repetitive box office numbers. Save us, Shia LaBeouf Mark Wahlberg, you’re our only hope!

22 Jump Street grossed $4.5 million yesterday, an increase of 23% from Monday. That is a 39% fall from last Tuesday on the heels of a 47% Monday to Monday depreciation rate. Stating the obvious, 22 Jump Street has legs. It has a running total of $118 million after 12 days. It is pacing 59% ahead of 21 Jump Street, which had earned $74.3 million after its first dozen days. That movie did not reach $118 million until day 30 so the sequel continues to steamroll its pace.

If 22 Jump Street maintains the same day 12 to final box office ratio as the first film, we would be discussing a domestic take of $220 million. Sequels ostensibly die faster; ergo, that may be an ambitious result. Since 22 Jump Street is obliterating 21 Jump Street, I cannot rule it out, though. Suffice to say that a Clone High movie is now more than simply a fevered dream, Phil Lord and Christopher Miller fans!




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I will use a lot of the same analysis with our second place film yesterday, How to Train Your Dragon 2. After doing so, I think you will understand why I am so gloomy about its situation. The Viking sequel to the best movie of 2010 (you heard me) grossed $4.3 million yesterday. In the process, it narrowly missed sneaking back into first place for the first time since June 15th, its third day in theaters as well as only day in first place thus far.

How to Train Your Dragon 2 increased 39% from Monday while dropping only 27% from last Tuesday. That is also significant improvement from the Monday-to-Monday fall of 38% mentioned in yesterday’s column. Its running total of $102 million means that it is the 16th release of the year to cross the $100 million mark. For comparison, there were only 35 for all of 2013. This year is shaping up to be a phenomenal one in terms of box office depth.

In terms of how the second film compares to the first, the mood turns somber. After 12 days in release, How to Train Your Dragon had earned $101.2 million. That film actually earned $9.1 million on its second Monday/Tuesday interval whereas the latest one managed only $7.5 million. And that is even worse than it sounds. There have been four years of ticket price inflation, especially for 3D cinema. Also, the first film’s second batch of weekdays occurred in April as opposed to summer. The sequel could fall behind the the original as soon as close of business today.


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