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Final thoughts on what the nominations tell us about the Academy today.

The Brits still matter. The Oscar nominations show us that British influence in the Academy is alive and kicking. Philomena, the “most British” of the Best Picture nominees this year, did not score as impressively with U.S. precursor guilds as it did with BAFTA (the British “Academy”), but it landed several nominations with that group and, ultimately, a nomination for Best Picture, Actress, Screenplay, and Score.

The effect of timing. The nominations remind us that, like in political campaigns, timing can be everything. Watching the SAG award show on Saturday and knowing nothing else, you wouldn’t even know of the existence of a movie called The Wolf of Wall Street, and you would think that The Butler was a sure fire thing for multiple Oscar nominations. But Wolf landed several important nominations and The Butler was shut out. Arguably, Wolf’s late screening date made it too late for the SAG nominating committees to seriously consider, but gained steam just in time for Oscar nominations. This, by the way, points to an inherent limit in the value of precursors as accurate predictors of Oscar-night success. Timing affects what different groups even have access to or what most people have seen.

The effect of narrative/momentum. The 2014 Academy Award nominations also show us that, like timing, narrative and momentum can play a significant role. A minor yet poignant example is Sally Hawkins’ somewhat surprising (but entirely deserved) nod for Best Supporting Actress for her role as Cate Blanchett’s simpleton sister in Blue Jasmine. A few years ago, Hawkins broke in with a revered performance in the British comedy Happy-Go-Lucky, winning awards on both sides of the pond, but ultimately failed to receive even a nomination from the Academy. I suspect that the narrative that came out of that year (i.e., “the Academy unfairly snubbed Hawkins then,”) played a role in allowing her to sneak in now.

But nowhere is the evidence of narrative and momentum more evident than in the nominations tally for American Hustle. First, the movie’s stars all have significant career momentum and goodwill, and the Academy loves its stars. Second, there is the undeniable momentum of David O. Russell, who after the critical disaster of I ? Huckabees has made three consecutive Best Picture nominees, two of which have won Oscars for his actors (again, the largest branch of the Academy). The combination of “he’s due” and “he’s good” narrative that these facts create are hard to ignore and may factor in the waning days of the race.

I’ll leave you with my current predictions for Oscar night, which are of course subject to change as the final precursors speak. Check back in after this Saturday, when the DGA announces their winners, for an updated status of the race, and a discussion about just how likely it is to have a split between Best Picture and Best Director, as I am currently predicting. As you will see, I have American Hustle winning a single Oscar - for its costumes. Predicting such a stunning outcome makes me uneasy, and will likely change before Oscar night.

Best Picture – 12 Years a Slave

Best Director - Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity

Best Actor - Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club

Best Actress - Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

Best Supporting Actor – Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

Best Supporting Actress – Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave

Best Writing, Original Screenplay – Her

Best Writing, Adapted Screenplay – 12 Years a Slave

Best Editing – Gravity

Best Cinematography – Gravity

Best Production Design (formerly Art Direction) – The Great Gatsby

Best Costumes - American Hustle

Best Makeup & Hairstyling – Dallas Buyers Club

Best Original Score – Gravity

Best Original Song – Let It Go, Frozen

Best Sound Editing – Gravity

Best Sound Mixing - Gravity

Best Animated Feature Film – Frozen

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