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Does this mean that Les Miserables is going to wither and die on the vine? Of course not. Every situation is different. In fact, if I did a sloppy calculation for the musical right now, a $180 million domestic run would seem reasonable. Is it? That depends entirely upon what happens next. How well the movie holds over the course of the week will determine exactly how big a hit it is. Given its frugal budget and opening day achievement, Les Miserables is already a bankable performer, though. Even in the Ali scenario, we would be talking about a $103 million movie, an epic result for the average musical.

Consider the above as we discuss the other two openers this week. They too will face the same box office calculus. Even so, The Weinstein Company should be thrilled with the $15 million debut of Django Unchained. The gloriously reviewed Civil War splatter-fest was slightly more expensive than Les Miserables at $83 million but it too is pointing in the direction of unqualified hit.

The most discussed film in the top ten finishes in third place. Yes, The Hobbit’s 11-day run as the number one movie in North America is over. Its yuletide take was $11.3 million, bringing the Peter Jackson opus to $168.3 million after a dozen days in theaters.

I will add a couple of notes about The Hobbit for perspective. Its calendar configuration matches that of the first Lord of the Rings movie, The Fellowship of the Ring. The 2001 release, however, debuted five days later than its 2012 successor. So one to one comparisons are a bit messy. Here is what I believe is important.

After a dozen days in theaters, The Fellowship of the Ring had earned $156.3 million. So The Hobbit is averaging a million dollars a day more than the first epic. It was pacing at $13 million a day in 2001 vs. $14 million a day in 2012. Suffice to say that ticket prices have gone up more than 7.7% over the past 11 years. The average ticket price in 2001 was $5.65. Nobody in North America has paid only $6.09 for a ticket to The Hobbit.

This is not the way that demand for this title should work. The sterling reputation of The Lord of the Rings trilogy should have meant a stellar run for its successor. Nine years of reverence from greasy fanboys combined with 3D/IMAX ticket pricing should create a box office juggernaut. We are not seeing that at all. Instead, The Hobbit is performing at what I consider to be relative worst case scenario pacing. A decrease in ticket sales from The Fellowship of the Ring was not a possibility I would have considered reasonable at the start of the month yet this is the reality of the daily numbers.

We will get into specifics over the next few days as we compare box office models. The Fellowship of the Ring’s first dozen days comprise the 12 of the final 13 days of the year, so The Hobbit could catch up a bit with holiday inflation. The how and why of it should be fascinating.

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