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Malcolm has done a very good job of keeping up the positive aspects of his personality in the game and saving the smug, frustrated know-it-all bits for interview. Everyone likes him. I can see him winning whether he sticks with his original Denise alliance or ends in a final three with Tandangs.



3 Pete

Post-merge prediction: 12 in 100

(original prediction: 1 in 18)

Pete has been the leader of the dominant Tandang alliance since the beginning of the game. It’s the cult-like take-no-prisoners with-us-or-against-us strategy that Boston Rob and Coach led in recent seasons. However, I’ve only ranked him at #3 because with three members, the alliance is too small to dictate terms and it offers only one path to victory. At the final tribal council, the jury votes for the players they respect, and if there isn't anyone to respect, they vote for the people they like most (or hate least). There are already two people – RC and Michael - that will not vote for any of the Tandang alliance under any circumstance, and everyone outside the alliance can name someone they like better than Pete, Abi and Artis. For anyone in this alliance to win, all three of them have to make it to the final Tribal Council and then fight over which of them is the least detestable.

In his pre-game interview, Pete said that he is passive-aggressive and that his plan was to cause chaos. There hasn't been much need for that so far, but he’s going to have to step up his game in the coming weeks.

4 Abi

Post-merge prediction: 5 in 100

(original prediction: 1 in 36)

Remember when Malcolm said that he wanted to play a sociopathic game? Abi is giving him a master class. She doesn’t do anything she doesn’t want to, she doesn’t pretend to care but when it’s the right time she steps up and competes. A couple of weeks ago, I said that if Abi did nothing for the next few episodes, I would have to conclude she is playing a smart game. It’s now a few episodes later, and Abi hasn’t done anything that we’ve seen, except bring it in an immunity challenge to keep the pressure on RC. She’s playing a smart game – if you are looking only at the short-term.

Longer term, I still think she’s delusional. In her pre-game interview, she claimed that people will be inspired by her. Inspired to root against her, maybe. Does anyone watching the show actually like Abi? I think the only person I’ve read with anything positive to say about her is me.

And that’s why I don’t see much of an end-game for Abi. It’s clear she wants Pete to take the hits for putting everyone else on the jury. But Survivors that use the under-the-radar strategy depend on their nice-ness to win votes at the final Tribal Council. A lot of Survivor winners have used this strategy – Natalie in the Samoa season, Amber in All-Stars, going all the way back to Tina in the Australian Outback season. But they were all nice people. We haven’t seen Abi be nice to anyone.



5 Denise

Post-merge prediction: 12 in 100

(original prediction: 1 in 18)


I’m so pleased that Denise was able to overcome the “older women get voted out early” hurdle and survive through the demise of Matsing. She’s been a great competitor in challenges, she has a great social game, and she’s both rational and empathetic . I would really like Denise to take it to the end and win the Sole Survivor title, but she’s not in a great position.

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