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Tandang

We haven’t seen Tandang go to Tribal Council either, but the divisions in the tribe are shaping up nicely. Abi and RC have a core alliance with Pete and Michael as their sub-alliance. But what RC doesn’t realize is that Abi’s core alliance is actually with Pete, who wants to bring along Lisa and Artis and get rid of Michael. I can’t wait for all these Chekhov guns to go off.

1. Pete Pete is a surprise #1 pick for me, but he is the one setting Tandang’s direction at the moment. He has forged an alliance with Abi, and is building a sub-alliance with Lisa and presumably with Artis. And his end game is all mapped out, because the other people in his alliance are either unlikeable or not into Survivor game play. All Pete needs to do now is ensure his alliance gets through the Pagong phase and not be a total jerk.

2. Abi With a hidden immunity idol and a core alliance with Pete, Abi’s spontaneity has worked well for her so far, but what keeps her out of the #1 slot is that we haven't seen much of her plan going forward. It seems to be all Pete’s plan, not hers, and it is Pete making the bonds with other castaways, not Abi. Also, for someone who talks a lot about how likeable she is and how she will inspire everyone, she’s not very pleasant. I suppose that people who go on and on about those things never are.

3. Lisa Remember two weeks ago, where the storyline was all about Lisa giving up hope and wondering whether she could play Survivor? Well, now she’s taking on the “just tell me what to do” role, which I think is the best one for her going forward, and if the alliance sticks, should take her well into the merge. The bad news for Lisa is that she will have no chance of winning unless her competitors at Final Tribal are universally despised.

4. Artis We haven’t seen much of Artis yet, despite his hyper-competitive personality. All we know at the moment is that he is gunning for Michael, which means he will probably be on board the Pete-and-Abi train. But Artis is going to be less pleasant and less convenient to keep around than Lisa, so he’s #4.

5. RC We haven’t seen RC express any real doubts about her alliance with Abi, so for the moment she's unaware of being #5. It’s a shame, because the more RC has been unknowingly on the outs, the more I have come to like her. Her best hope is for Tandang to keep away from Tribal Council and for Abi to tip her hand by blowing a fuse.

6. Michael Michael seems pretty secure in the knowledge that in the unlikely event of Tandang losing a challenge, Lisa will be the next to go. Think again, Skupin! We haven’t seen Michael do much except hurt himself in a variety of ways, and he hasn’t bothered to do anything with Lisa because (a) he thinks she is on the chopping block and (b) he can’t be seen to be forming an alliance with the person everyone says is on the chopping block.



Matsing

Obviously Matsing is the weakest of the three tribes, having come last in all three immunity challenges and being down to three members. It’s a shame, because I think Denise and Malcolm are two of the better Survivor players this season, and I’m hoping they can stick around for the merge and then use divide-and-conquer tactics to make it to the end. Hoping, but not expecting.

1. Denise Denise has a good combination of skills to take her to the end. She’s athletic, she has a great camp work ethic, she relates well to people and she can step outside herself to understand what others are thinking and then use that knowledge objectively to get herself ahead in the game. It’s a real shame she is stuck on Matsing.

2. Malcolm Is #2, because Denise is #1, and while they are working well together as a team, Denise seems to be doing more of the thinking. Their partnership reminds me a little of J.T. and Stephen from the Tocantins season – a good-looking schemer who came up with a lot of ideas, and a more grounded type who thought things through and kept things from getting too crazy.

3. Russell He’s the obvious #3. Denise and Malcolm have a strong alliance that’s not going to break tonight. If Matsing loses again this week, Russell is gone and be prepared for the most boring pre-Tribal Council intrigue session ever.

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