Monday Morning Quarterback Part II

By BOP Staff

August 21, 2012

I do not have roid rage!

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Shalimar Sahota: As Edwin highlighted, for whatever reason, stop-motion animation doesn't seem to be as huge a draw (it probably just looks too old fashioned for most mainstream audiences). So I'd see an opening of $14 million as good. I can understand how the horror aspect might have actually put some parents off of taking thier kids. Yet, given the references to horror movies in the trailer, I think that as well as kids, a good chunk of the target audience here is actually adults! As well as Laika's Coraline, this actually reminds me more of Monster House, another animated comedy/horror with child leads. Both films finished with a over $70 million domestic. I think ParaNorman should be able to accomplish the same. What works in the film's favour is that Ice Age 4 and Brave are now out of the top ten, meaning that as well as being the most widely available animated film on general release, ParaNorman will have the majority of those 3D screens all to itself till Resident Evil: Retribution and the re-release of Finding Nemo 3D arrive in mid September.

Reagen Sulewski: I sort of view this as running in the same circle as the Wimpy Kid movies, which are pitched at an extremely narrow audience and really have to thread the needle in order to be a success. This naturally limits you to box office in this range, maybe up to $20 million. Interestingly, I kind of wonder if we've gotten to the point where having a male protagonist isn't a net benefit anymore, judging how this performed versus Coraline.




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David Mumpower: If we gave a prize for best movie title, ParaNorman would get my vote for 2012 thus far. Unfortunately, box office does come into play. Like Felix, I adore Coraline, a title I would place among the most engaging releases of the 2000s. I would offer an explanation for the legs of Coraline that may have been forgotten over the past couple of years. Not only was the Neal Gaiman story one of the first mainstream 3D titles but it was also arguably the best prior to Avatar. I was one of the many consumers who was suckered into buying a lot of 3D tickets only to realize that I was more annoyed by the glasses than preoccupied by the (theoretically) special effects. Coraline was a step beyond in this regard. This is why it had exemplary box office legs. ParaNorman will not experience a similar fate as Shalimar suggests because there is a different level of competition for those 3D exhibitions now. As much as I want Laika to have all the blockbuster hits in the world (if you read this, Laika employees, you are on the side of the angels with your movie making style), ParaNorman is going to be an okay performer rather than a blockbuster. As Felix suggested, its $45 million budget does keep its potential downside minimized. This is a blueprint example of an August release. It's good enough for the summer but it's not good enough to be a blockbuster.

Edwin Davies: It's worth pointing put, with regards to comparisons between ParaNorman and Coraline, that the earlier film had two major advantages: it was based on fairly popular source material from an author with a dedicated fanbase (Neil Gaiman), and it was one of the first of the most recent wave of 3D films, so it had the additional value of novelty on its side to boost the sales and maintain interest. ParaNorman is based on an original idea and as such lacks name recognition beyond the awesome pun in its title, and 3D is now so commonplace that its impact is negligible except when talking about huge films like The Avengers.

It does have the Coraline connection in its favor, but audiences are savvy enough to know that neither Henry Selick nor Gaiman are involved this time around, so the shared studio aspect can only carry the film so far. The uphill struggle the film has to face in comparison to its predecessor are the main reasons why I'm pretty positive about this result, even if it isn't spectacular.


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