Monday Morning Quarterback Part I

By BOP Staff

July 11, 2011

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Reagen Sulewski: I don't know how you can look at this as anything but an unqualified success. It's going to swamp its negative costs in the first two weeks of releases, and it's punching in the same class as Bridesmaids and Bad Teacher, when its biggest lead is Jason Frigging Bateman (forget the bosses - they're not the focus of the movie and it wasn't sold as a "Kevin Spacey movie" or a "Jennifer Aniston movie"). I do think a lot of this is timing - all these films are drafting a bit off The Hangover's wake and the fact that it made the marketplace friendly for R-rated comedy again. I think this shows just how much of Hollywood is luck-based - the luck of getting your movie out at the right time to capitalize on a trend that you're not even sure is going to be there.

Kim Hollis: I agree that the studio has to be pleased with this result. It's going to be a solid moneymaker, and as everyone here has mentioned, it's going to be fine in the legs department as well. Why didn't it hit as big as Bad Teacher? Who knows? Timing, maybe? Anyway, I think the studio did a fine job selling this given that the above-the-title stars weren't huge, but the great casting of the supporting actors had to play a part in its success.

Jason Lee: I agree with everything that's been said. Big (but not giant) win for WB. Opening after Bad Teacher, The Hangover 2, Bridesmaids, etc., this movie easily could have felt like overkill in the R-rated comedy department - the fifth main course presented in a buffet line. Would WB have liked to get this movie into the $35+ range given this cast? Absolutely. Was that always going to be hard given the calendar and the rating? Definitely. Color this a win for WB.




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Kim Hollis: Zookeeper, aka Paul Blart: Zoo Cop, opened to $20.1 million. Is this more, less, or about what you expected? Should Sony be pleased?

Matthew Huntley: I was definitely expecting more. The highest estimate I would have given for this pic is $43 million, and the lowest $33 million, so I was definitely caught me off guard when it only made $20 million. Why did I expect so much? Because it's made up of ingredients that proved to be so successful in the past: 1) fat guy who screams, falls down and goes boom; 2) talking animals; 3) enchanted family place. Right there you have characteristics from Paul Blart: Mall Cop, Madagascar 1 and 2, and Night at the Museum, and those movies were huge.

Sony should not be too disappointed, though, because I could see this movie showing decent enough legs to get to $60-$80 million, which would make it a modest success. Even when it faces the behemoth that is Harry Potter next weekend, its blow shouldn't be too bad since it will serve as an alternative to the PG-13 boy wizard. Plus mid-week numbers should keep it steady through the end of July. Aside from Potter, it has the little kids/family market mostly to itself for a little while.


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