Monday Morning Quarterback Part II

By BOP Staff

May 24, 2011

Do you mind if I stand here in the shadow of your, uh, greatness?

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Shalimar Sahota: It's been a long time since I opened an atlas, but you mean to tell me that On Stranger Tides opened in places other than the US and UK? Actually, from the looks of it, the film opened in over 45 countries. I guess if I were in Disney's position, I'd probably announce, "Yes there are other countries in the world, and they helped us break a record," and then focus to build more on that. To make that much money in less than a week is staggering, and instantly places the film in the Top 200 of all time. I thought the franchise itself was generally intended to have universal appeal, particularly with this latest installment that includes American, British, Australian and Spanish actors. Also, we're seeing more and more films that manage to do crazy numbers overseas, managing to eclipse their US box office totals. Matthew has already highlighted the franchise films, though even I'm surprised by what films like Mamma Mia!, 2012 and Disney's own Alice in Wonderland managed to pull in.

Jason Lee: I definitely think that you can emphasize both numbers. Realistically, On Stranger Tides will still end up as one of the biggest domestic films of the year, and in terms of global take, it'll be near the top. That aside, it never fails to surprise me the staggered way the international film market experiences "franchise fatigue." Though our ardor for a franchise might be slowing in the US (At Worlds End, On Stranger Tides, etc.), it's still churning along overseas.




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David Mumpower: Max’s point about the growing number of upper tier theaters abroad is a key component in the industry wide growth of international box office. Historically, overseas revenue mattered less due to the fact that there are so many hidden expenses in distributing movies in foreign markets. As we have become a more global financial economics system, this has become less of an issue. That is to say that when we see international revenues these days, we would be unwise to dismiss them as we had done as recently as a few years ago. The revenue return on those is growing just as the quality of the theaters is increasing. Not coincidentally, many of the major releases over the past 18 months have been greenlighted due to a primary focus on their overseas appeal. Pirates of the Caribbean is a blueprint example of this.

Disney sees that the prior two titles in the franchise averaged over a billion dollars of worldwide gross. They made the determination that even if there is some saturation with the product, this title should still wind up within 20% of its predecessor. This is exactly why the film got made. Unless it was an absolute train wreck, Disney could mark it down for a worldwide performance in excess of $800 million. The current trajectory appears likely to surpass that. As such, this project is a huge win…unless On Stranger Tides permanently damages the brand with its perceived weaker quality.


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