Monday Morning Quarterback Part I

By BOP Staff

December 20, 2010

This is our favorite moment of the 2010 NFL season.

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Brett Beach: I am inclined to say win, lose, and draw just to hedge my bets. First, I will throw this out for anyone willing to look into it further: Does the jump in budget from $17 million on the first to somewhere between $170 million and $200 million for this (and that's not counting advertising) count as the biggest dollar increase ever from one sequel to the next? If the film is a global success (making at least $400 million) then this is money well spent, but even before this early estimate of low $40 millions came in, I would argue that that budget is insane for a sequel to a cult film, helmed by a first time director (as the first was) and coming from Walt Disney Studios who are aware that this isn't exactly their typical kid/family-friendly feature. Based on what reviews like Bruce's suggest, this is The Matrix at a PG level, with the caveat that, as he notes, TRON went there first. I would say that the win is simply that they got an opening as high as they did. I could not see this opening at I Am Legend/Avatar levels, even with hype, IMAX and 3D, especially with no Will Smith or James Cameron involved. David and Kim pointed out in their Weekend Wrap-up that every December opener north of $40 million got to $200 million at least. So Tron loses, in my eyes, if it doesn't make that. The draw would be that the hoped-for sequel goes forward, but at a lot less of a budget.




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Shalimar Sahota: That it's opened at higher than $40 million I'd say works out as one of those disappointing yet good results for Disney. This opening also reminds me of the other long-time sequel released a few months ago, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps, which also won the weekend with a slightly lower than expected take. A few months ago, all the signs were there for me to say that Tron: Legacy would open big with $60 million. However, despite all the marketing power Disney put behind the film, and given that the original film was released back in the 1980s, some people still simply don't know what the hell Tron is, and probably don't want to. I imagine that this opening does represent some fanboy rush, and the whole video game look is going to prove difficult in getting more than just teenage boys to go and see it. However, I think Disney might just scrape the production budget back domestically, but it's going to be a struggle getting there. As Bruce says, it'll be next weekend's results that'll be more interesting.

Michael Lynderey: It really looks like a classic draw, but only because inflated expectations mar the result. If someone told you a sequel to Tron opened with more than the original ended up making on the whole, and 28 years later, to boot, that would be a big win on all fronts. But since Legacy was turned into "the" mystery event picture of the fall (sorry, Mr. Potter), I don't think I was the only one who was expecting the next coming of Avatar, or at least 50% of what that would work out to. But as things stand, I suspect the legs won't be all that good, and the planned Tron 3 might not materialize (...for another 28 years?).


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