Monday Morning Quarterback Part I

By BOP Staff

November 22, 2010

Merry Christmas!

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Reagen Sulewski: For all the damning praise about consistency, I don't think it's too reasonable to expect the series to be able to outpace inflation. The fanbase was at 11 from the word go, and there wasn't a lot of opportunity to make converts. For that matter, consistency is pretty damn impressive in its own right - how many series could keep up quality through seven or eight films that it wouldn't fizzle out halfway through? That's a lot of investment you're asking of people.

Max Braden: I think a lot of the success has to do with both the trailer for Deathly Hallows and the market for the Twilight Saga. Ten years is a long time to keep the same audience for what is (largely) a children's genre series. But right when the the first generation of Potter fans and may have moved on, you've got the Twilight series stoking the market for moody sci-fi fantasy. At the same time, the Potter series has matured from quidditch to life and death drama. It's amazing that the series has been able to keep the original cast this long (the only other uninterrupted decade-plus-long lead to come to my mind is Roger Moore as Bond, four decades ago), but that naturally means they've matured along with the story. So here you've got a trailer featuring teens in a dark, action packed fantasy world, perfectly set to appeal to the new Twilight fans as well as the old Potter fans. Compare that to the too-dark previous couple of Potter films and too-boring New Moon, and you've got the perfect tone to sell tickets. Also, despite Potter's success as a summer film, I think this is great post-Halloween material.

David Mumpower: With regards to the competition factor, that's a false lead. The *combined* total of the films that have opened in wide release against Potter films prior to now is $35.2 million. Most of that comes from one title, Walk the Line, which debuted to $22.3 million. The film it opened against, Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire, had been the largest Potter debut prior to this weekend, earning $102.3 million. Competition doesn't matter to Harry Potter at all.




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Kim Hollis: What do you expect from Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part One during the rest of its run? Do you see any films challenging it to be #1 of the holiday season?

Josh Spiegel: I'm still not sure how well Tron: Legacy is going to do. My best guess is that if any film were to top Harry Potter or come close, it'll be that (especially as Tron will have 3D and IMAX tickets boosting its numbers, whereas Harry Potter only has IMAX). I still think that Toy Story 3 is going to end up as the victor of the entire year, though this number could mean that Deathly Hallows, Part One ends up as the highest-grossing of the franchise (there's about 100 million bucks separating the highest-grossing Harry Potter film and Toy Story 3, of course). With the holiday season pretty much upon us, it seems likely that Harry Potter will dominate for the next six-plus weeks.


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