The 12 Days of Box Office

By David Mumpower

December 30, 2009

That's a whole heap of bad luck.

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With regards to the rest of the top ten, the big news is The Squeakuel (note that my sitemates hate it when I call the film this) has surpassed $100 million after only seven days in release. Oddly, it is still not certain to pass the final domestic take of its predecessor, which made $217.3 million. Such is the nature of films released during the lucrative December holiday period. We'll touch on that more in tomorrow's column, too. As for Sherlock Holmes, it won't reach that milestone until the day after tomorrow, which means it will match The Squeakuel in terms of days needed to get to $100 million.

It's Complicated may have dreadful reviews and a hefty production budget at $75 million, but it's fast on its way to becoming another hit for Nancy Meyers. She has quietly became one of the most reliable box office performers among female directors. The LEAST successful of her previous four releases earned $63.3 million with the average being around $109 million. The Steve Martin/Meryl Streep dramedy won't reach those levels (barring something unforeseen), but it should cross $50 million by Sunday. Given the middling reviews/word-of-mouth, this has to feel like a win for Universal.

Disney is probably not quite as enthusiastic about The Princess and the Frog. The Mouse House's not-so-triumphant return to traditional animation (in terms of box office, not quality) is going to be sitting around $82 million at the end of the week. It will be 40 days into release by then and ready to cough up venues to newer products, meaning that $100 million isn't an absolute certainty at this point. For a production with a budget of $105 million, that's not good news. The best Disney can hope for here is a draw with international receipts possibly pushing it up to the "minor win" area.




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Sunday also shapes up to be a big day for The Blind Side, which probably crosses over the magical $200 million mark on that day. It would be the eighth film to do in 2009. Yes, the divide between seventh and eighth place in 2009 is currently around $52 million. Everything that made it to $200 million kept chugging along until $250 million. If we skip down a bit to tenth place to discuss such a film, New Moon is sputtering along at this point with around a million a day. It too is on its final box office legs, meaning that $300 million appears to be out of reach. The Twilight sequel appears likely to pass Home Alone on Friday to become the 39th biggest domestic performer of all time. Barring something unforeseen like a last stand from Team Edward/Team Jacob zealots, I have trouble extrapolating it any higher than 33rd place. That's the spot currently occupied by The Sixth Sense at $293.5 million. The next movie to beat would be Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince at $302.0 million and I just don't think New Moon has that much steam in it.

The rest of yesterday's top ten is compromised of Up in the Air, an ascending Oscars contender possibly following the Slumdog Millionaire playbook, and a couple of duds in Nine and Did You Hear about the Morgans. The George Clooney film is platforming nicely; budgeted at $25 million, it has already surpassed that total with $28.5 million. It's safe to say that this is going to be a big winner for Paramount, whether or not it winds up beating Avatar at the Academy Awards. Meanwhile, Did You Hear About the Morgans continues to maximize its box office thanks to the magic of December holiday box office inflation. That's the good news; the bad news is that it's earning $1.2 million a day with a running tally of $17.9 million against a budget of $58 million. Yes. Ouch.

Meanwhile, Nine has a sensational week over week increase due to its platforming from four theaters in 1,412 locations. Its woeful per-venue average of $728 tells the real story, though. Nine has been eviscerated by vicious reviews and pathetic word-of-mouth. After his tremendous success with his directorial debut, Chicago, Rob Marshall follows up a box office loser in Memoirs of a Geisha with a box office disaster in Nine, which cost a whopping $80 million to produce. Depending on whether it gets some wildly unwarranted Academy Awards attention (sadly, this possibility cannot be ruled out), Nine could wind up being the biggest box office loser of the year in terms of actual dollars lost.


Daily Box Office for Tuesday, December 29, 2009
Rank Film Distributor Daily Gross Daily Change Weekly Change Running Total
1 Avatar 20th Century Fox $18,290,628 -5.8% +13.7% $250,419,951
2 Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel 20th Century Fox $12,532,035 +3.6% N/A $100,217,975
3 Sherlock Holmes Warner Bros. Pictures $10,240,000 -8.5% N/A $83,820,000
4 It's Complicated Universal $4,273,105 0.0% N/A $30,646,685
5 The Princess and the Frog Walt Disney Pictures $3,364,477 +9.5% +7.0% $70,183,477
6 The Blind Side Twentieth Century Fox $2,980,000 +6.0% +34.3% $189,918,000
7 Up in the Air Paramount $2,230,000 -1.5% +311.9% $28,526,000
8 Did You Hear About the Morgans Columbia Pictures $1,200,000 +8.6% N/A $17,905,000
9 Nine The Weinstein Company $1,027,338 -6.3% +3532.0% $7,954,548
10 The Twilight Saga: New Moon Summit Entertainment $957,000 -0.2% -8.9% $282,887,000
11 Invictus Warner Bros. Pictures $870,000 +1.8% +3.9% $24,745,000
12 Disney's A Christmas Carol Walt Disney Pictures $278,237 +3.5% -73.0% $136,432,237
Box office data supplied by Exhibitor Relations



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