Monday Morning Quarterback Part I

By BOP Staff

December 21, 2009

This was going on all day.

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Max Braden: This is also a record opening for a project not based on previously released movies, novels, comic books, or other established franchise (I'm including the Bible, for The Passion of the Christ), and the only selling name was the director, who for the youngest portion of the movie's target demographic isn't even a household name. And $77 million is far more than double Cameron's previous best opening weekend. Fox may have wanted $90 million, but they have to be satisfied with this opening.

Pete Kilmer: I think it's just "okay" for an opening. I really think, like everyone else said, that the word-of-mouth on this is gonna really push this film. It was telling to me that the embargo on reviews was on it was being lifted rather quickly when the reviews were coming out really positive on it.

Kim Hollis: I felt like Avatar was such a question mark of a commodity. A couple of weeks ago, we were talking around the BOP offices about whether anyone was even excited for the film and a lot of people were kind of like, "oh, I might see it, but..." And some responses to what was being shown were downright hostile. I honestly wouldn't have been surprised if this had opened as low as $45 million, and I think $77 million makes for a really great start with potential for a lot more as people talk about how important it is to experience this movie in a theater (specifically in IMAX 3-D if you have the option).




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David Mumpower: I think we're getting too jaded if we can't appreciate a $77 million opening for a new property. I am reminded of the cycle we we went through with each Lord of the Rings release. In the days leading up to each part of the trilogy, people would forecast that it would be the one that escaped general December behavior and become a record-shattering debut. That never happened for a reason. During this time of the year, consumer behavior is just plain odd. I take a $77 million debut as a relatively solid pat on the back from North America to James Cameron, a demonstration of faith that no matter how inscrutable his films look, he has earned the benefit of the doubt.

Reagen Sulewski: The only reason I'm not more effusive about this number (and it was $70 million when I answered it originally) is because a movie that costs this much needs an opening like that. For a $100 or $150 million movie, that's assured you of something already. For a potentially $300 million plus movie, you're just getting started.

David Mumpower: I agree to a large extent. Avatar is a bit different since it's all but guaranteed massive international receipts, though. I've pointed this out a few times before, but it still blows me away. The -international- box office of Titanic is enough to make it the most successful film of all time in terms of worldwide box office. It made $1.23 billion internationally. Nothing else has done over $1.13 billion worldwide (domestic *and* international). Terminator 2 earned $312 million internationally way back in 1991. There are only seven films released in 2009 that have managed such a lofty amount. He is waaaaaay ahead of the game in terms of international appeal. It's a tribute to how universal his film concepts are.


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