Monday Morning Quarterback Part II
By BOP Staff
December 15, 2009
Michael Lynderey: The momentum on this one has been building considerably these last few days. All the rave reviews coming in are exactly what Avatar needs to lift it up from being a $170 million-grossing disappointment to maybe a $300 million earner, if audiences embrace it as warmly as critics have. And with no big budget special effects competition outside of Sherlock Holmes (a movie I have my doubts about), I think it's pretty much smooth sailing ahead for Avatar, something I would not have expected even a month ago. Looks like kudos to Cameron again.
Matthew Huntley: Given its early reviews, and the 3-D and IMAX surcharges, I think it's safe to say the film will open with at least $50-55 million, which is about $15-20 million more than I would have originally predicted after its first trailer hit theaters. I think the most interesting aspect of Avatar's release is that moviegoers still don't know what to expect from the story. It's still a mystery as to what the movie's really about, and that's (usually) an incentive for people to open their wallets.
George Rose: I had a lengthy conversation with my brother this past weekend about Avatar, he being the die hard James Cameron fan and me being the cynical box office analyst who weighs pre-release expectations against final earnings. Avatar will make a lot of money, relative to other movies. That's a given. It won't have the biggest opening weekend and it won't be the biggest movie ever, but it will make enough in both respects to be in the top 10 of the year. However, in my book, the movie is already an epic failure. Sure, it's getting great early reviews, but that doesn't mean it will be as good as Cameron's other work. Sure, it will make over $200 million, but cost twice that to make and market, and won't be the biggest movie of the year or make half of Titanic's $600 million, let alone half of the larger total from 10 years of inflation. There is so much pressure and previous acclaim/success behind Cameron that unless it makes more than Transformer 2's $400 million it will feel like a disappointment. As far as the most interesting aspect? I'd have to say it's Zoe Saldana. She, along with the irritatingly appealing 3D IMAX experience, will have me at the midnight release of Dances With Smurfs.
Kim Hollis: I think that expecting any film to live up to the lofty standards of Titanic's box office performance is unrealistic, George. Additionally, as Tom mentioned, stuff like Transformers 2 already has that built-in audience where Avatar is building solely on buzz and intrigue alone. It's not a known story. People aren't sure what to expect. All I know is that I was at the original Terminator on opening night, it remains one of my favorite films of all-time, and James Cameron will always get the benefit of the doubt from me. The fact that the film is getting fantastic reviews doesn't even surprise me. Avatar is following the Titanic model so closely it's almost eerie.
Reagen Sulewski: It's interesting how confident a filmmaker James Cameron is. He'll absorb all these complaints prior to release knowing that he's got his ace in the hole. You really can't rule anything out with him.
Tim Briody: As someone who still couldn't explain what this movie is about at gunpoint, the advertising to me is terrible. "Here's James Cameron! He made another movie! And it uses crazy special effects! Holy cow!"
Sean Collier: I was stunned by the glowing praise from the initial reviews, and instantly turned from "I'll see this when I get around to it" to "I'm going ASAP." The most interesting thing to me is the chance that it actually might live up to the hype, which would be a phenomenal achievement.
Jason Lee: I'm sort of surprised at how much of the conversation around this film has centered around the expected "spectacle" of it all. To me, there's been more talk about the technology that's gone into making it than anything about the plot . . . sort of like 2012.
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