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At this point, my boyfriend predicts that Eli will go home. I'm not so sure. I think that Eli is clearly not at the caliber of the other four chefs, but I have seen in the past that Tom Colicchio rules over the judges with an iron fist – if he has decided that Bryan will go home, then he will.

Which would be a stunning result.

The five chefs come back out and they look terrified. Jerome has the pleasure of announcing the winner and I predict Kevin, simply because he made fewer mistakes than his competitors. And yes, it's Kevin. I agree with the judgment - the right person won – though this outcome HAS to worry the contestants. If Kevin can beat the four of them when he's using a new cooking technique and puts out mediocre food, then they have little reason to believe that anyone other than him will take home this title in two weeks.

Kevin heads back into the Stew Room and the remaining four chefs have to sweat it out, waiting to hear who goes home. Tom says that it's hard to see anyone go home at this point, but each dish had problems. Eli had a solid concept. Jennifer had great flavor, albeit with uneven cooking. Bryan reached high but his lamb was undercooked. Michael didn't demonstrate the level of proficiency that they're used to.

And Padma asks Eli to pack his knives. Whew. That was the most tense Judges Table decision that I've experienced all season. Eli shakes hands with the judges, remarking to the camera that he's just happy that he's made it this far. He says that the people who beat him are fantastic chefs (and they are). Tom congratulates the remaining three chefs and they head into the Stew Room to celebrate with Kevin.

So now we know which four chefs will be competing in the finale in Napa Valley. Here are a few thoughts on our final contenders for this year's title.

Kevin: I think almost all viewers have to agree that Kevin is the favorite for the title. He's won more Elimination Challenges than any other chef this season and proven episode-after-episode that he's a thoughtful, creative cook. It's tough, however, to maintain one's momentum in the finale after the chefs take a bit of a break: out of five seasons of Top Chef, only twice has the chef that won the most Elimination Challenges gone on to win the title (Ilan in Season 2 and Stephanie in Season 4). Odds of winning: 50%.

Michael: I feel quite certain that the only chef that can pull the upset here and de-throne Kevin is Michael. He is, without a doubt, the most innovative, daring and ambitious chef of the four. If he is able to execute his vision, I think he's got a real shot at the title. Key stat for him: confident chefs do well (Harold, Hung, Stephanie) but confident I-have-something-to-prove chefs do not (Tiffani, Marcel, Lisa). Odds of winning: 30%.

Bryan: Bryan is clearly a talented, imaginative chef, but despite his early string of Elimination Challenge wins, he has largely been overshadowed by his brother in recent challenges. He has the ability to win, but I think it's going to take some big mistakes by Kevin and Michael to pave the way. Scary stat: only one Top Chef winner in five seasons has won the title without winning a single Quickfire Challenge (Ilan in Season 2). Odds of winning: 15%.

Jennifer: As you guys know, Jennifer is the chef that I'm rooting for. When we first met her, she was tough, confident, and no-nonsense in the kitchen. I love that in a woman. She's struggled badly in the last couple of episodes, we have little reason to believe that she'll regain her form for the finale, and even if she does, there's little reason to hope that she'll match the outstanding level of Kevin and Michael. Only one woman has ever won Top Chef and I don't think we're looking at Female Winner #2. Odds of winning: 5%.

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