Monday Morning Quarterback Part II

By BOP Staff

June 30, 2009

We don't think they're doing anything dirty, but we can't be 100% certain.

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Josh Spiegel: As I mentioned earlier, I'd say $400 million is almost definite (though I would LOVE to be wrong). Even with major declines, it's hard to see this one not crossing that plateau, with the coming holiday. The only real competition this movie has is the sixth Harry Potter movie, but those films haven't ever been as huge as something like Transformers. Of course, if the weekday box office gross for this goes down, down, down, then I may have to revise my prediction, but I was pretty sure a few months back that Transformers would be the number-one movie of the year; looks like things will pan out that way.

Scott Lumley: I'm pegging this at $350 million, give or take ten million. The Dark Knight barely got over $530 million and there are no Oscar caliber performances in this film except via ILM, so I just don't see it happening.

It will absolutely have a monster run, and deservedly so. But I will be very surprised if this cracks the magical $400 million number.

Jason Lee: I'm stunned by the fact that this film hasn't shown any negative word-of-mouth so far - its legs have been impressive given its quality (or lack thereof). I really thought we'd see a larger weekend dip after its Thursday/Friday grosses. Personally, I think that Ice Age 3 and Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince will really challenge the movie's staying power in theatres (which was a strength of the first film), leaving the film to settle in around $350 - $370 mil.

Reagen Sulewski: My worst case scenario has it topping out at about $350 million. Best case: I could see $450 million. Obviously there's a lot of wiggle room in there depending on if people see it disposable, or as the first true summer blockbuster of this year.




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Sean Collier: I'm with Scott's projection. The word-of-mouth isn't the only thing that's going to kneecap Transformers - remember the length, here. An 150 minute film low on quality isn't going to have as many repeat viewings as this sort of blockbuster usually has - people returned to Dark Knight and Spiderman for the quality, Pirates for the fun, Star Wars for the nerd cred. There's no reason to pay for two tickets for Transformers, so I don't think it'll make it to $400 million.


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