Monday Morning Quarterback Part I

By BOP Staff

March 30, 2009

Surprisingly, they're doing The Hustle.

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Kim Hollis: Paramount and DreamWorks Animation should be quite pleased with this start. I think that DreamWorks always faces a bit of an uphill battle with regard to their movies in comparison to Pixar. Pixar has an automatic, built-in fan base that is always going to show up on opening weekend and it runs the gamut of all ages. It doesn't matter if the product is original or a sequel. For DreamWorks Animation, however, they seem to face more challenges is selling "new" product. There isn't the same loyalty to them that there is to Pixar, and things can always go south quickly. The studio did a terrific job in marketing this with the Super Bowl ad and also getting across the idea the the 3-D aspect of the movie will make it worth a family outing to theaters. It did about as well as Madagascar 2, an established brand for the studio, so that has to be very encouraging.

David Mumpower: I'm rather surprised by what Max said. The most recent trio of DreamWorks Animation releases opened to $38.0 million, $60.2 million and $63.1 million, respectively. That's an average of $58.3 million, which drills Monsters vs. Aliens almost exactly. The largest one of those three openings was a sequel to a $193.6 million movie, so it was theoretically the best case scenario result. The $70 million tally Max suggests as possible would represent an 11% improvement on that. I think he's fallen victim to unreasonable expectations here. As for the film's multiplier, a worst case scenario result based on the company's prior large scale releases would still get the film to $160 million. The first calculation I ran yesterday rather squarely slotted it in the Madagascar range mentioned above. I think I had it at $193.8 million. Unless the 3-D aspect creates a novelty rush, it's almost certain to fall in that range. And given what we've seen from Coraline being propped up by 3-D ticket sales in later weeks, I'll be quite surprised if this is not the case. As an aside, I thought the movie was a solid A; both of our opinions on the film's quality may be seeping into our long term evaluations of its domestic box office.




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Kim Hollis: DreamWorks Animation's last two films earned roughly $400 million domestically combined, and they have now attained the highest opening weekend in 2009. Is it fair to say that they are winning the box office battle with Pixar at the moment?

Josh Spiegel: I'd say yes...and no, at the same time. Pixar's last two films, Ratatouille and WALL-E, made about $430 million domestic combined, whereas Kung Fu Panda and Madagascar 2, DreamWorks' last two, made $395 million domestic. The reason why DreamWorks is still winning the box office battle is because of output. Pixar, some would say (me being one of them), focuses more on quality than quantity, making only the one movie a year. DreamWorks has three animated features over a nine-month period come out, so the money comes in a lot quicker. Either way, for profit, DreamWorks' strategy works out well, and Monsters vs. Aliens certainly isn't stopping that trend.


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