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Happy frickin' holidays, studios

Kim Hollis: Which do you think is more likely to earn $100 million, Yes Man or Seven Pounds?

Pete Kilmer: Tough call. I think Yes Man will be the one to limp to the $100 million mark first.

Brandon Scott: I'd be surprised if either make it. I would bet that Yes Man has the better chance on topic, as we might be light in the comedy department over the next month or so, but Willie is the most proven of stars. So while I don't suspect either will hit it, it's pretty much a toss-up as to which has the better opportunity. Outcome bleak. Prognosis negative.

Shane Jenkins: I think Yes Man will be Fun With Dick and Jane all over again, and barely crack the mark before being summarily forgotten about forever.

Joel Corcoran: I'd rather see Seven Pounds hit the $100 million mark, but in an objective analysis, I think Yes Man has a better chance of doing so. There is an outside chance that word-of-mouth and general intrigue about Will Smith being in this mysterious movie will bring more people into the theaters to see Seven Pounds over the next few weeks. However, Yes Man should win just by being the default option for a comedy film through the end of the year.

Tim Briody: Yes Man is a mortal lock for $100 million. The high tide rises all boats, but I'll say Seven Pounds is in a bit of trouble based on reception.





Scott Lumley: You have to go back a long long way to find a Will Smith movie that didn't cross the $100 million mark. I expect both of these films to easily rack up in excess of $100 million by the time the final tallies are in. Yes Man will get there first, but Seven Pounds should be right behind it.

Sean Collier: Yes Man. Dramas need good word-of-mouth, and Seven Pounds doesn't have it.

Eric Hughes: I say neither. I originally was leaning towards Yes Man, but the comedy may lose some business once Bedtime Stories invades on Christmas Day.

Max Braden: I'll say Yes Man. It may face competition from Bedtime Stories, but the competition from Benjamin Button will hit Seven Pounds harder.

David Mumpower: I don't believe either one is going to break $100 million, but if I had to pick one, Yes Man is the only legitimate option. Seven Pounds isn't going to get there, not with this buzz and these reviews. The argument for Yes Man is that it has opened a few million higher than Fun with Dick and Jane's $14.4 million debut in 2005. That one went on to earn $110.6 million domestically, but I'm dubious that lightning will strike again. That film's total from its Wednesday debut during Christmas week to January 2nd, the last day of holiday box office, was $64.6 million. I've been running some theoretical numbers for Yes Man based on historical models for this calendar configuration (which hasn't happened in a while). Christmas and New Year's Day coming on Thursdays means that the bonus box office revenue from the holidays is shortened by a couple of days on both ends. That immediately cuts the box office of Seven Pounds and Yes Man by several million each.

Daron Aldridge: My vote goes for neither. As I mentioned earlier, even with duplicating the success of Fun with Dick and Jane, Yes Man will come up about $6 million short of $100 million. Seven Pounds just doesn't have it in it to make it in that long run. My guess would be about $60 million tops for Will Smith.

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