Monday Morning Quarterback Part II

By BOP Staff

November 25, 2008

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Stupid people. Go see Bolt. Now! What are you waiting for?

Kim Hollis: Bolt opened to $26.7 million. What do you think of this result?

Brandon Scott: Underwhelming. This is a magnificent call out of Travolta's lack of starpower. Cyrus couldn't help because of the Twilight competition. Maybe the fact that Madagascar 2 is still pretty fresh also had an effect. I thought Bolt looked kind of cool and I don't much care for animated films. Maybe it will show some type of legs with next week(end) helping out.

Eric Hughes: This is decent business for an animated movie, but you've got to be thinking it would have performed better had Twilight not sunk its teeth into the same weekend. Twilight's opening weekend was hands-down THE event of the fall season, with its sold-out midnight showings and an opening take exceeding even 007. Perhaps releasing Bolt on a Wednesday would have generated more buzz?

Max Braden: I'm really surprised. Audience reaction to the trailer was very positive, reviews were very positive, it's Disney, and it's November. Even with some audience pulled off by Twilight I'd still expect a stronger response. A lot of the audience for Bolt would have been a little young to have read Twilight. Chicken Little opened to $40 million three years ago with no competition, but Bolt looked like a stronger contender to me.

Tim Briody: Everyone here is crazy. This is a fine opening. Check out the hold it's going to have over Thanksgiving next weekend, especially compared to Twilight.

Reagen Sulewski: While Thanksgiving is going to help it - a lot - you can't help but be a little disappointed that a film that if not Pixar quality, sure looked a hell of a lot better than, say Ice Age, couldn't break $30 million. Hamster-in-a-ball will be along shortly to snap all our necks for our lack of confidence.

Les Winan: Maybe I'm crazy, but as much as I hate John Revolta I can't blame this on him (or Miley Cyrus). I just can't agree with Brandon on this. I don't think the voices for an animated kids movie factor in at all to whether or not it's successful.

Jason Lee: Though this is a fine opening, it's not nearly as high as it could have been. You have (from what I've heard from David) a really strong film and I really think that it was hurt by the fact that everyone and their mom was talking about Twilight last week. While Tim could be right that it'll have some strong holds in the weeks to come, if there'd been a little more press and a little more buzz around Bolt, I'd bet that Disney could have snuck into that $30 million range.




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Kim Hollis: I think it's a good opening, but I'm still sad that more people didn't go out and give this one a chance. It's just a wonderful little movie and is totally deserving of success. I'm hoping for a nice, long, solid run in theaters based on word-of-mouth. Also, I agree that Travolta and Cyrus had little to do with its box office. This is a character-driven film and you don't even notice that there are celebrity voices when you watch the movie. I think there are some very rare circumstances where voice actors might matter, but those are few and far between.

Jamie Ruccio: I'm a little disappointed. The opening is fine but I was hoping for a little more danger eating. I thought those trailers, with Hamster-in-a-Ball, were hilarious and well done and I'm not even close to the demo. In fact, I have to go with a family member or adult female to not be looked at weirdly by parents taking their kids to see it. I was, however, prepared to brave it until my significant other expressed her happy willingness to go.

Having watched movie openings now for nearly ten years, I know that sometimes a movie opening does not affect another. This is true when more than one movie opens well. But I can't help but think this movie got crushed by Twilight. No matter what the female tweener audience is, a significant portion of audience that would have gone to see Bolt.

I think Bolt will have great legs as a kids movie going into the holiday season, but I can't help but think the opening would have been stronger nearly any other weekend. I really think whoever approved the opening weekend needs to be updating their resume. I'm somewhat worried about its legs as well as I suspect Twilight will have decent to perhaps even monster staying power.

But I'll be going and if I like it, I'll tell everyone about it and maybe even grab my friend's kid and make her go see it as well.

David Mumpower: Tim has this drilled. Meet the Robinsons, the last 3-D release from Disney Animation, opened to $25.1 million last April. Even adjusting for 18 months of box office inflation, Bolt has beaten that performance. The concern is that Miley Cyrus was involved in this project, so there is a sense this one should have done better. The problem is that Cyrus wasn't emphasized as much in the trailers with Disney instead (correctly) assessing that Rhino, the hamster-in-a-ball, would be the stronger selling point. While $26.7 million isn't as much as I had expected (or tracking had indicated), Tim is absolutely right that it will make a ton of money over the next seven days. That's why studios have been releasing major titles the week before Thanksgiving in recent years. People who saw Bolt are going to offer glowing praise for it, and it will be north of $60 million by our next Monday Morning Quarterback.

Jerry Simpson: More than any other Studio, Disney takes the long view. They did on the first Pirates, on the Pixar films, on Pearl Harbor. They know that Bolt will have the lesser drop than Twilight and are really playing for the long Thanksgiving weekend.

John Lasseter is wondering about this, too.

Kim Hollis: Why is there such a disparity between Disney's 3-D releases and their Pixar releases?

Brandon Scott: Animated wonks would know most about this. It seems that Pixar is THE name in the animated arena and everything else is uncivilized. Even with the rise of DreamWorks Animation, especially this year as we discussed, Pixar has that brand name history. It's like watching ESPN. You have to be mildly in the know to be aware that it is owned by Disney. Just in the instance of Pixar/Disney, the roles with awareness are reversed.

Eric Hughes: Brandon's got the idea with Pixar's branding. For instance, take WALL-E. Forget the teaser trailer, all I needed were mere movie stills to know the product was good. Robots? Space? I bet it's awesome. And guess what? It was. Even though Disney has ties with Pixar, it still has to do the same thing that all animation studios (save for Pixar) do with each new release: sell the hell out of a movie to get audiences to go and see it.

Max Braden: My intuition tells me that it's the key personnel that have the magic or they don't, and for the time being it's been the guys at Pixar who have a better sense of what's truly funny and how to create approachable characters. If they were to leave Pixar, the company could rely on the name brand for a while, but the product would be noticeably different. Disney had that magic with its animated musicals from The Little Mermaid into the early '90s. They could get it back again.

Kevin Chen: The Disney brand doesn't have the magical luster that it once had, partly owing to the pedestrian efforts of their films once they abandoned traditional animation (and things were even on the decline then, if you look at the relatively weak domestic gross for Brother Bear and Home on the Range). However, to say that Disney is corporate and Pixar is the sole proprietor of engaging creative content misses the point, since John Lasseter is the principal creative executive for all of Disney, not just Pixar.

It's pretty obvious that his influence is already being felt. It was reported that he ordered extensive rework on Meet the Robinsons, and the result was a movie with a lot of humor and some moments with genuine emotion. Bolt is another entry in that category. With the proper focus, Disney can rebuild its brand. It's only fitting that a disciple of the Nine Old Men is leading the charge.

Jason Lee: Jason: I agree with Kevin. The Disney animation brand has been so burdened with mediocre films that simply have not received the type of box office or critical acclaim that they did in years past - Chicken Little, Meet the Robinsons, Atlantis, etc. You just can't go to your typical Disney animated film and expect the same type of experience that you would from the studio that brought you WALL:E, Finding Nemo, Monsters Inc. etc.

To a certain extent, I also feel like their animation style simply looks like it's aimed at a younger audience - it's just not as sophisticated as Pixar or even DreamWorks. Just my two cents.

Kim Hollis: It has everything to do with building a brand. Even though as an animation fan *I* am completely aware that John Lasseter is the creative guy behind *both* Pixar and Disney, the majority of the movie-going public doesn't know it. Disney stumbled a little bit with Atlantis and Treasure Planet, and even though Meet the Robinsons turned out to be a pleasant surprise (it's a wonderful family film with a marvelous message), there's a perception that Disney's animated films are not quite at the same level as Pixar's. Pixar never disappoints. Disney has. But it's clear that they're putting the same focus on story that Pixar has, especially with movies like Bolt and Meet the Robinsons.

Marty Doskins: While both companies have the same "man behind the scenes", I think that one thing that Disney and Pixar must *not* do is combine the film divisions under the Disney name. My belief is that it would diminish the power of the Pixar brand rather than raise up Disney's brand image. They are stronger staying apart rather than combining. This follows along Kim's thought of the general movie-going public not being aware of Lasseter's role.




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Extreme Movie!

Kim Hollis: We are about to enter the second most crucial period of the box office year. From now until the end of the year, what film are you most anticipating?

Brandon Scott: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button is #1. The Wrestler is #2. Slumdog Millionaire. The Road would have been up there. This is the best time of year for films, but admittedly, the water feels a little shallow this go around. Hopefully it won't prove to be that way.

Eric Hughes: I haven't been this excited about the end of the movie season in some time. Must-sees would be Milk, Frost/Nixon, Doubt and The Wrestler. I also wouldn't mind seeing Benjamin Button, Revolutionary Road and The Reader, though they aren't a priority.

Max Braden: A lot of this season's offerings have downsides that make me pause, but I'm looking forward to Transporter 3 for the action, Cadillac Records for Jeffrey Wright, The Day the Earth Stood still for the eye candy, The Wrestler for the swan song, Brothers Bloom for the comedy, Benjamin Button for the epic, and Valkyrie for the fateful thrill.

Jason Lee: I'm 100%, crazy looking forward to Doubt, Frost/Nixon and Milk. Benjamin Button still hasn't sold me yet, though I'll probably see it.

Kim Hollis: I'm excited for Slumdog Millionaire (which hasn't opened here yet), Frost/Nixon, Benjamin Button, Marley & Me and Revolutionary Road.

Daron Aldridge: I am looking forward to Revolutionary Road and The Wrestler. I am also intrigued by The Spirit. Oh yeah, and Four Christmases, just to see Jon Favreau beating up on Vince Vaughn.

David Mumpower: My list is Slumdog Millionaire, Frost/Nixon, The Wrestler, and Yes Man.


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