Monday Morning Quarterback Part I

By BOP Staff

May 27, 2008

Behold cancer's worst enemy, the kid it can't keep down.

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Max Braden: I'd expected a sub-$100 million Mon-Fri weekend right from the first trailer, so it at least surpassed my box office expectations. Then, I expected front-loading numbers due to "disappointing" word-of-mouth reviews, and that didn't come true either. I saw an evening showing so I don't know the true demographic turnout, but I get the feeling there was actually strong response from high school/early college males. Could Shia actually have been a factor?

David Mumpower: Like Reagen stated in his forecast, I had been expecting a result in the $150 million range all along. So, this is an unsurprising, fine result from my perspective. It's already (effectively) the number two film of the year after five days in release. It has surpassed Horton Hears a Who's $151.3 million result in a fraction of the time. The question is whether it can pass Iron Man for first place for the summer. The Marvel title's tiny declines are impressive, demonstrating the movie's exemplary word of mouth. I still think that Kingdom of the Crystal Skull is going to pass it, though. It behaved like a family film this weekend and I expect that trend to continue.

In the current marketplace climate, the biggest blockbusters need to be event films. Indiana Jones is exactly that in the way that it appeals to consumers. This is the rare release that drags people into theaters for the first time in years. The last such title that gave the most casual of potential customers reason to head out to the cineplex was The Passion of the Christ. It's been that long, but Indy has broken the dry spell for people who otherwise are fine waiting until a title is available on home video or cable.

Kim Hollis: I agree that this is not an altogether surprising result. It does go back to what I had mentioned last week about people being very willing to make it a family weekend at the movies if the right product is there. However, it has to be *just the right product*. Indiana Jones is a brand that inspires a lot of faith in people with kids, which means that they can be perfectly comfortable in a slightly expensive family outing. The same can't be said for the dark and broody looking Prince Caspian or the frenetic Speed Racer.




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Calvin Trager: Can it be both unsurprising as well as a tremendous accomplishment? It carried lofty expectations and "only" lived up to them. Considering touchdown or fumble were the only two choices here, I'd say the outcome should not be taken for granted even if it wasn't a record-setting performance, or came in below tracking, or whatever.

David Mumpower: What you are describing is the very same frustration journalists faced when Kingdom of the Crystal Skull debuted at Cannes. People covering the event wanted its reception to either be glowing or disastrous. Both of those are easy stories to write. Instead, it was generally well-liked but nobody thought it was going to be confused with Raiders of the Lost Ark, either. Thus far, the new Indy film is neither exceeding nor falling below expectations, which is in and of itself a rare accomplishment for a movie.


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