Weekend Forecast for April 11-13, 2008
By Reagen Sulewski
April 11, 2008
A motley group of releases makes up the slate at the box office this weekend, but let's face it, you don't really care. You're just marking time until May and the start of the summer blockbuster season.
Prom Night is the putative favorite to win the weekend, and I'm going to try hard not to think about how sad that is. A remake of a 1980 film of the same name, it's a horror movie set at one of those proms that only happens in the movies, set in a five-star hotel with, well, Hollywood production values. But you see, one of the attendees has a tragic past that's about to come back and haunt her. With knives and stuff.
Brittany Snow stars as the generic blonde in trouble, along with a pimple-free cast of placeholder actors who are marked to fall like dominos (and – I'm not one to harp on this, but Scott Porter, better known as Jason Street from Friday Night Lights, who I greatly enjoy in that show, is really pushing it as a teenager at 29 years old. He's giving Ian Ziering a run for his money at this point).
Long time readers of this column may know that I have a bit of difficulty distinguishing these cookie-cutter horror flicks from each other – teens in peril movies run together at a certain point, and the reasons that kids flock to some and not others is probably a mystery best left to the ages. However, this one seems to have that little edge over a lot of them in its setting – making these films star (fake) teenagers always seems to boost the box office, and it does appear to be trying to at least put some "thriller" into its horror. It should win the weekend with about $14 million.
Street Kings comes to theaters with an interesting pedigree. Co-written by James Ellroy (of L.A. Confidential fame) and Kurt Wimmer (of Equilibrium and... uh, Ultraviolet) and directed by David Ayer (who wrote Training Day and wrote and directed Harsh Times), it's got a lot of talent behind the camera, or at least people that have produced quality films in the past.
The people on film are an interesting bunch as well, including Keanu Reeves, Chris Evans, Forest Whitaker, Hugh Laurie (recycling his accent from House), Cedric the Entertainer and rappers Common and The Game. This is one of those casts that is wide but not deep, with a ton of recognizable and quality actors (yes, even Keanu), but no real draws. That they appear to be in service of a relatively ordinary cop flick doesn't help.
Reeves plays a cop framed for the murder of a fellow officer, and to clear his name he has to go up against the institution itself yada yada whatever. There's nothing here plot-wise that you've never seen before. Even the generic police thriller has its place, but critics are taking the billy club to this one, so basically this screams rental. I'd look for an $8 million opening this weekend.
Finally we have the supposed "prestige" release of the week, Smart People. Dennis Quaid stars as a brilliant but depressive literature professor (is there any other kind?) who is entirely puzzled about personal relationships, with only his daughter (Ellen Page) to really understand him and follow in his anti-social footsteps. After he suffers a seizure and loses his ability to drive, his mooching adopted brother (Thomas Haden Church) shows up, looking for a spot to crash. At the same time, he starts a tentative relationship with the doctor that treated him (Sarah Jessica Parker) who happens to a former student.
Smart People is essentially a character study of some entirely screwed up people, which is a time honored indie-film trope. Your enjoyment of this film will probably depend on your tolerance of quirk, which the filmmakers seem to have bought in bulk. Reviews are fairly negative for it, punishing it for what they call overly mannered dialog and formulaic plotting. It's likely to be a bit of an alienating film, even if just for the title and difficult to market overall. Opening on just 1,100 screens, it should have an opening weekend of $4 million.
21 managed to win its second straight weekend last time out with $15 million, and pushing its total over $50 million by midweek. This was a surprisingly leggy performance after a $24 million opening weekend, and a bit of a surprise considering the film's general lack of stars and the critical drubbing it took. I suspect this had a bit to do with the Vegas renaissance in pop culture of late, with a desire of audiences to latch on to that. I'm not sure it can repeat its second weekend holdover, but a solid $9 million might be in the cards.
Nim's Island was a mild surprise as a second place finisher last weekend beating out George Clooney's Leatherheads, with a little over $13 million. It's really a surprise only because Leatherheads probably should have made more, as that's about the going rate for a fantasy-adventure kid's film based on a book these days. It should weather the coming weeks fairly well, as it's not really competing with the other film target at the youth set out there right now, Horton Hears a Who. Give it another $8 million this weekend.
Leatherheads, on the other hand, may not fare that well. The word that best describes this film is "mediocre". Unfortunately, Clooney was a bit confused on exactly what film he was making, as it jumps from genre to genre, sometimes even in the same scene. It's not a bad movie, but I don't see too many people recommending it to give that word-of-mouth boost. Look for about $7 million this weekend for it.
Other notables include Horton Hears a Who, which is inching closer to the $150 million mark, and The Ruins, last week's horror offering, which should likely be left in tatters by Prom Night, earning about $4 million.
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Forecast: Weekend of April 11-13, 2008
|
Rank |
Film |
Number of
Sites |
Changes in Sites
from Last |
Estimated
Gross ($) |
|
1
|
Prom Night
|
2,700
|
New
|
14.2
|
|
2
|
21
|
2,736
|
+83
|
9.3
|
|
3
|
Street Kings
|
2,467
|
New
|
8.5
|
|
4
|
Nim's Island
|
3,518
|
+5
|
8.4
|
|
5
|
Leatherheads
|
2,771
|
+2
|
7.3
|
|
6
|
Horton Hears a Who
|
3,209
|
-362
|
5.9
|
|
7
|
Smart People
|
1,106
|
New
|
4.3
|
|
8
|
The Ruins
|
2,814
|
+2
|
4.1
|
|
9
|
Superhero Movie
|
2,526
|
-439
|
2.7
|
|
10
|
Drillbit Taylor
|
2,205
|
-502
|
2.0
|
|
|
|
|
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